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the Israelis began their ground operations, this market is being resolved yes.

If it occurs in September does it count as an October surprise?

@OP as long as the invasion happens between now and end of October

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1838987939344171369?s=46&t=6nPE5hAfCrWAyKRnBXm4IQ

@ooah0 yup de escalation through escalation or whatever

What if they invade but it has no impact on the election?

So based on the question, this would count as an October surprise even if the invasion starts in September?

@Creagle Surely

@Creagle yess, the news cycle lately has been crazy but it is also difficult to see something more consiquestional happening, I'm saying this and now I feel I'll be proven very wrong so we shall see

@Creagle it's a bigger surprise if the October surprise comes in September

@AlQuinn BAHAHAHHAHAHA

@AlQuinn I think it might actually take till October lmao

i will buy yes at any price for any amount

@JamieCrom put up some limits

@JamieCrom whats the reasoning for your confidence? I'm just curious, thank you

@DaveWeese what is wrong with you??? WEIRDDDD

@JamieCrom you were right damn it this sucks I love politics

@whhatisachoice im just a naive partisan. i think the usa presidential election is a 50-50 race and there are no more debates or interviews or events scheduled between now and the election that can change the odds. except one thing: israel can invade lebanon and bring usa into their war. when that happens, many nonvoters will be activated against the incumbent party for allowing usa soldiers to die in a war

U.S. White House or US/Israel Department of Defense or the State Department confirming involvement in the war.

Israeli Prime Minister's Office or Ministry of Defense and/or credible International Outlets like Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, BBC, CNN, and Al Jazeera would likely report on an invasion.