Market will be resolved based on this page: Canadian Dollar to US Dollar Exchange Rate Chart | Xe. At the time of writing, the midmarket rate is listed as 1 CAD = 0.737859 USD.
If the listed rate for January 1, 2024 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD > 0.74 USD, this market will resolve to YES.
If the listed rate for January 1, 2024 at 00:00 UTC is 1 CAD ≤ 0.74 USD, this market will resolve to NO.
If the XE chart is unavailable for any reason when resolving, I will use the result from a major search engine to resolve.
Comparing with my markets ending in a couple weeks and in April, Manifold as a whole seems to believe that the Canadian dollar will remain up this month (77%), go down over the next few months (36% to remain up), then go back up over the rest of the year (79%).
If you, individually, believe this, why do you think it might happen?
If you don't believe it, there seems to be opportunity for profit.
@whenhaveiever the recent pull back on the dxy makes me think the us fed has more room to push interest rates up this year, inflation levels not coming down significantly yet makes me think that the fed will continue to sell off assets from its balance sheet, and that interest rates wont be coming down this year. all together im not seeing how cad is going to be at 0.73usd by eoy as dxy is likely to continue bull run. (im a chef, i dont know fuck all about econ, except what i have 'learnt' from youtube, so maybe im way off, but this to me feels like a profit opportunity.)