Resolution criteria

This market resolves "Yes" if Russia captures the entirety of Myrnohrad according to the ISW map by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, with the entirety of the municipality shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). For any change on the ISW map to qualify for resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle, with continuous shading reflecting either "Assessed Russian Control", "Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine", or "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours" qualifying. If the area is not fully shaded red by the deadline, the market resolves "No".

Background

Myrnohrad is a city in Pokrovsk Raion, Donetsk Oblast, eastern Ukraine. As of December 12, 2025, the town was fully encircled by Russian forces with main battles taking place in the central part, and as of late December 2025, at least half or most of the town is under Russian control. As of late December, ISW observed evidence indicating a Russian presence within only 49 percent of Myrnohrad. Ukrainian forces retain control over northern Pokrovsk and most of Myrnohrad, with the nearby logistics town of Rodynske playing a key role in holding the line.

Considerations

Part of the city is in a "gray zone" as a result of constant maneuvering, not a complete loss of control. Putin claimed on January 4 that Russian forces have captured Myrnohrad, but Ukraine's General Staff dismissed this as disinformation, stating Myrnohrad is not under Russian control. Conflicting claims between Russian and Ukrainian sources are common; the ISW map serves as the objective resolution source.