Will 40% of users who were referred by @Austin in 2022 still be active six months after signup?
Manifold•Manifold User Retention
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resolved Jul 30
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At market close, I will use a script to check each qualifying account. In order to count as "active" a user must have placed a bet, sold shares, written a comment, or created a market within one month of their six-month anniversary (I will be using the timeframe between days 150 and 180, inclusive). Resolving a market without e.g. writing a comment does not count as activity for the purposes of this market. If more than 40% of specified users meet this criteria, this market resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.


Close date updated to 2023-06-01 11:59 pm

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Will you only look at accounts older than 180 days?

@Yev Yes, I will only look at accounts created in 2022. I will evaluate after the last eligible account is 180 days old.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

I think 40% would be an insanely high percentage for 6 month retention on any platform.

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