If the conservative dating app "The Right Stuff" is still running one year after launch, what percentage of its active users will be female? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

If the conservative dating app "The Right Stuff" is still running one year after launch, what percentage of its active users will be female?

20%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Aug 12, 7:02pm: ~~If the conservative dating app "The Right Stuff" is still running one year after launch, what percentage of it's active users will be female?~~ → If the conservative dating app "The Right Stuff" is still running one year after launch, what percentage of its active users will be female?

Will resolve one year after the app is launched. Resolves to a percentage based on the most recent user data available, if such exists at that time.

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littlebubullebought Ṁ60 of NO

Reasoning: I am starting with a baseline of 1 woman for 2 men based on OkCupid Stats.

I suspect that "incel-type" men will find The Right Stuff more appealing because they might believe the women there are more "traditional".

On the other hand, they might make some women on the app leave for other pastures.

So my guess is 1 woman for 5 men.

joy_void_joyis predicting NO at 28%

> The app is also currently focused on heterosexual relationships, Huff said, but added it may expand to accept same-sex relationships in the future.

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/3596598-conservative-dating-site-backed-by-peter-thiel-announces-launch-next-month/

Uh, that's a... choice. I can't immagine the userbase being too happy with that

joy_void_joyis predicting NO at 28%

Thanks a lot for the market though, I somehow completely missed this. Tip!

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ10 YES from 18% to 20%

Lily bought Ṁ40 NO from 20% to 18%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ64/Ṁ100 NO at 20% (cancelled)

littlebubulle sold Ṁ140 NO from 16% to 25%

Joshua bought Ṁ40 NO from 18% to 16%

Graeme Lufkin bought Ṁ10 NO from 19% to 18%

Daniel Mendez bought Ṁ10 NO at 19%

Jess Smith bought Ṁ10 NO from 20% to 19%

Adele Lopez bought Ṁ10 NO from 21% to 20%

Ben Harris bought Ṁ10 NO from 22% to 21%

Olivia bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ0 YES at 23%

Rina Razh bought Ṁ5 YES from 21% to 23%

cos created limit order for Ṁ12 NO at 43%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 6%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 21% (cancelled)

Siao bought Ṁ10 YES from 16% to 22%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 16% (cancelled)

Siao bought Ṁ10 YES from 10% to 16%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 10% (cancelled)

littlebubulle bought Ṁ80 NO from 17% to 10%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ19 NO at 90% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ29 NO at 85% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 92% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ24 NO at 75% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 88% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ102 NO at 67% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ6 NO at 87% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ15 NO at 80% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ75 NO at 57% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ25 NO at 47% (cancelled)

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 YES at 17%

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 16% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 98% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 96% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 85% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 90% (cancelled)

VelocityBot created limit order for Ṁ14 NO at 75% (cancelled)

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