Will Sasha Skochilenko serve her full sentence?
Basic
7
Ṁ548
resolved Aug 1
Resolved
NO

Sasha Skochilenko is a Russian activist. On 16 November 2023, she was sentenced to a custodial term of 7 years for protesting against the Russian invasion of Ukraine (namely for replacing price tags in a supermarket with pieces of paper containing information about the invasion, such as the Mariupol theater airstrike).

Note that this does not mean the custodial term ends on 16 November 2030, as the pre-trial term is taken into account when calculating the end of the term. I will use whatever laws are relevant by the time of her release.

I will resolve YES if she leaves custody on the day her term ends, taking into account any laws that will be relevant on that day (regarding pre-trial detention counting as part of the total sentence etc.). If she is sentenced to a longer custodial term while in prison, I will resolve based on her extended term (that is, I'll resolve YES if the serves the full extended term). If her term is over but she continues to be held in custody without an official sentence, I will also resolve YES.

I will resolve NO if she is released early for any reason: pardoned, released on a parole, released as part of some post-Putin procedure of releasing political prisoners, exchanged with another country and released there, her term is replaced with a lighter sentence, etc. I will resolve NO if she dies in custody.

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bought Ṁ300 NO

Ah I see.

Well, resolve it, then. 🙂

Come on, doesn't anyone want to buy this down? If Sasha Skochilenko ends up in today's prisoner exchange thing, I will resolve NO today, and the market is currently at 29%!!

(Sorry, I initially wrote that I would resolve YES if she's released - it was a brain fart, I edited it)

bought Ṁ70 NO

If you say so :) I’m not sure what we’re seeing is a prelude to an exchange though yeah this version is very good. But as I know about myself, my inability to imagine a better version is usually just my inability to do so and not a very good predictor.

Several political prisoners in Russia have disappeared in the last few days and their fate is currently unknown; Sasha Skochilenko is among them.

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