A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.

This resolves YES if I subjectively think that all hell broke loose in Russia no earlier than 17 March 2024 and no later than 17 April 2024.

If the same level of oppression and censorship continues, it is not sufficient to resolve YES, even though the current level of oppression really sucks. The spirit of the question is about a sudden drastic worsening in the level of oppression, safety, quality of life etc.

Things that may be sufficient to resolve YES:

1. Repression turning from targeted actions (even when there is a lot of targets) to blanket measures, Great Purge-style. A possible distinctive sign of this is a drastic simplification in the legal process of arresting and imprisoning someone, like the introduction of troikas in the USSR or the law of suspects in revolutionary France.

2. Something triggering a new wave of mass emigration, such as a new mobilization.

3. A drastic drop in the quality of life, such as a mass starvation.

4. A return to death penalty, and its wide application. (Death penalty in Russia has not been used since 1996.)

5. A significant political instability, such as a new rebellion attempt. (The last attempt was in June 2023 by the Wagner Group)

This is not at all an exhaustive list - just a couple of examples about the spirit of the question.

The intuition behind this question is that since unpopular measures are not to be taken immediately before the elections, something terrible might come after the elections are finished.

Since this market is very subjective, I will not trade in it.

If I'm not sure which way to resolve, I may or may not freeze the market, consult the traders, and / or resolve N/A.

Feel free to propose more specific criteria in the comments.

EDIT: After the Crocus city hall attack in Moscow, we discussed in the comments with @KongoLandwalker if terrorist attacks are in the spirit of the question, and count as "all hell breaking loose". I decided that the question is if said attack represents one random event or is part of a bigger story that represents larger change in Russia. So:

• One terrorist attack may or may not be enough for a YES resolution, depending on factors like the scale of the attack, and other events surrounding it.

• A chain of independent terrorist attacks (i. e. at least two attacks) is a YES if the attacks are all large enough (possible criterion: if the US embassy in Russia issues a statement calling it a terrorist attack, then it's large enough; here's such a statement for the Crocus city hall attack)