By the start of 2026, will I still think that transformers are the main architecture for tasks related to natural language processing?
7
110Ṁ165Dec 31
75%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
My job is related to NLP, and I expect I will be able to judge the position on transformers in the field. No specific criteria, sorry, the question is just about my opinion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
15% chance
Will Transformer based architectures still be SOTA for language modelling by 2026?
80% chance
Will transformers still be the dominant DL architecture in 2026?
81% chance
By 2030, will large language models still be at the peak of AI? [DRAFT]
25% chance
Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2026?
56% chance
Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?
63% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
35% chance
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
23% chance
By EOY 2025, will the model with the lowest perplexity on Common Crawl will not be based on transformers?
10% chance
Natural Language Robot by 2030?
82% chance