https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/26/cargo-ship-fire-off-dutch-coast
The ship owner says the cause was likely to be an electric car, of which there were 25 on board.
However I've read that electric cars are actually less prone to catching fire than normal ICE cars, e.g. here: https://twitter.com/_HannahRitchie/status/1680819776099057665?s=20
If no cause if found by end of year, market will resolve as N/A.
1,000Thanks Thomas M for the links. I'd say they are still not enough evidence to resolve question to true, so I'm going for N/A.
Ideally I would have given this question way more time to resolve, but I wasn't confident I would still be active on Manifold. So apologies for the opportunity cost inflicted on all the forecasters on this question.
It would be great if someone else created the same question but with a longer time to resolution. I would be very happy to place a bet there (though I think the current prob on this market is close to my personal estimate).
Thanks everyone!
Article linked in Wikipedia now states that all electric cars on board were recovered without fire damage.
"There is still no clear statement from the investigating authorities as to how the fire on the ship "Fremantle Highway" started - but according to the first signs, it was probably not an electric car. According to previous investigations, all of the approximately 500 charged electric cars on board are still in good condition, some even undamaged, as reported by the Dutch media."
More info. Seems to confirm that 500 electric cars were onboard.
More info. Seems there may have been closer to 500 battery electric vehicles on the ship. Also the article says "in the audio of an emergency call released by Dutch broadcaster RTL, someone can be heard saying "the fire started in the battery of an electric car.""
