vishal's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.75
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when vishal bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ10
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ10
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ10
50%
60%
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ10
- By the end of 2023, will substantial evidence emerge that leaders in EA knew about (or had strong suspicions of) SBF/FTX's unethical investing practices and chose to cover it up?NOṀ10
- Will Fi show up to coworking within 1 hour from when she said she would?NOṀ10
70%
80%
90%
95%