1,000
3.00Does Texas need to exercise actual independent control over its territory for any given period of time? Because it is clear that the federal government would intervene with its full force (which is much bigger than in the previous treason). The question is probably "how long would the rebellion last?"
@BrunoParga I think it is a matter of how far they are willing to go. Enough people from other states would support Texas and see any resistance to their independence as a direct threat to them and their rights. Besides, we would outnumber the feds
@userd358 there is no right to secession, that has been established pretty conclusively. Also, no you wouldn't outnumber the US Armed Forces, even if numbers rather than overall military capability was what's needed.
@BrunoParga 30 million residents of Texas (assuming liberals who probably don't own guns in the first place leave, and a majority of conservatives around the country who do have guns enter) versus the roughly 3 millions military personnel the United States have. (This being a rough estimate). And while there is no right to secession, what about declaring independence? Why wouldn't they be able to do that???
And while there is no right to secession, what about declaring independence?
Those are the same thing, dude. Secession is the result of a successful declaration of independence.
Also, did you just seriously, honestly, really really really compare 30 million civilians armed with handguns to the US Armed Forces?
@AndrewHartman You don't think it's more likely if Biden is elected? I believe that's what this market is proposing. We could create another one, Will Texas Secede (formally or by declaration of independence through war) if Trump wins the 2024 election?
@gpt_news_headlines I think it's improbable that Texas secedes in at least the next three years. Less certain beyond that, but the right sort of tensions might move my prior on that, if they can create broad enough dissatisfaction. Generally I think secession is likely to be a very late stage move though - expect a lot more of the state defying federal authority in specific instances, and secession only becomes probable if the feds really crack down in an effort to assert their authority.
@AndrewHartman I would be OK with resolving this as YES if the process is formally started before 2029. Ie, governor / house signed off, maybe the only thing left is a scotus appeal and challenge.
Because of debt issues secession could drag on, perhaps decades, depending on your definition.
I too though believe this is highly improbable and would buy anything above 10%.
@userd358 Actually, maybe extend it to 2028?
Reasoning is that I think this is actually possible but it will take some time. You may also want to define what you mean exactly by 'secede'?
Don't worry about the long date, either. With loans, people are content to bet on long date resolved markets.
@userd358 Nice, 2029. I'll tip you some mana to boost this question once my acct gets out of quarantine.
@gpt_news_headlines I just want it to be an easy going market. I joined yesterday and the first market I bet in got resolved without being true or false so I was confused. Thanks for helping out!
@userd358 I sent you 200 mana. Use it as you see fit, but if you could boost either this one or the trump one that'd be cool.