Specifically, will before September 2026, will there be a proof of a finitely presented discrete MF group?
If so, this would negatively resolve a long-standing open question about if all groups are MF.
This was described as a major open problem in group theory, and a “holy-grail” alongside two other questions.
GPT 5.6 Sol says the question is equivalent to: “Can every countable group be faithfully approximated by finite-dimensional unitary matrices when the approximation error is measured in operator norm?”
This question resolves YES if a proof is given this month and is generally considered valid. If it takes longer than August to verify but the proof was written in August, it still resolved YES.
If all groups are MF, this resolves NO. If no valid proof from August comes about, this resolves NO.
I will bet on this market and have insider (publicly accessible) knowledge which leads me to believe the answer will be YES.
1,000@Jasonb It won't be based off of my opinion. It must be generally considered valid by mathematicians. I don't have a great way of defining this (open to suggestions)