Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election? | Manifold

Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?

🇺🇸 US Politics 🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election Manifold Meta-Forecasting

Basic

36

Ṁ7.7k

Nov 5

67%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This market cuts off on November 4th. Yes will pay out if the candidate with the largest percent chance of winning on the largest manifold market on November 4th is inaugurated president.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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How specifically will you resolve if the value of that market swings back and forth across 50% during November 4?

54% seems low. Feel like by the election it should be at least 60%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy if you feel that way place a bet, and make it 60%. put your money where your mouth is

by when?

bought Ṁ8 NO

@FakeMoney This market cuts off on November 4th. Yes will pay off if the candidate with the largest percent chance of winning on the largest manifold market on November 4th is inaugurated president.

Related questions

Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?

+4% 1d47% chance

Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?

How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?

Which site will be most accurate at predicting the Electoral College results? (Manifold, Polymarket, Nate Silver, 538)

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

Will Manifold crash during America's election night/morning?

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

Manifold Sentiment Prediction (POTUS Election 2024)

Related questions

Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?

Will a major newspaper cite/reference a Manifold prediction market by the 2024 election?

In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?

How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?

Will Manifold crash during America's election night/morning?

Which site will be most accurate at predicting the Electoral College results? (Manifold, Polymarket, Nate Silver, 538)

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform FiveThirtyEight's?

Will Manifold's 2024 general election predictions outperform Polymarket's?

Manifold Sentiment Prediction (POTUS Election 2024)