When this closes at a random predetermined time, will the biggest Yes bet be larger than the top three No bets combined?
40
389
908
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
NO

I’ve randomly selected a secret closing time between noon 3/11 and noon 3/15 (PST.)

Top bets in Yes and No are determined by just going down the list and counting - i.e. if there are two bets tied for the largest in Yes I only count the first one.

Tie goes to the Nos. I won’t bet.

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What's up with this?

@DaveTrash Hmmm, thanks for flagging. At the predetermined time I went to close it, that bet wasn’t displaying at all. Zero sign of it. Is it typical that there’s a big window between bets being made and appearing?

@Creature It's just 5 to 10 minutes.

@DaveTrash Got it. I suppose the cutoff just happened to fall between that gap for this one? I’m unaware of potential processes for changing the resolution of a closed market, but if that’s an option I’d be happy to update this to account for my new awareness of this bet.

@Creature you can still correct it. Just click the resolve button above and select the correct answer.

@DaveTrash Thanks, but... I don't see a resolve button? It's just text, what am I missing?

It's largest single bets and not total bet per person was my understanding. Is that right?

Do you reserve the right to change the outcome by placing or removing your own bets right before closing time? The closing time is known to you, and if you're willing to trade on that information this seems quite exploitable.

@ssh I won’t bet on this market. I’ll add that note now, thanks.