What measures will be taken by Israel against Iran next week?
42
378
1.7k
resolved Apr 22
Resolved
YES
Drone attacks
Resolved
YES
Military bases attacks
Resolved
YES
Ballistic missile launches
Resolved
YES
Ask USA for help
Resolved
NO
No use of military force
Resolved
NO
Ground Invasion
Resolved
NO
Manned aircraft in Iran’s airspace

Next week refers to the week starting 14 Apr and ending 21 Apr. Any number can be true, feel free to add your options. E.g. if Israel sends ballistic missiles to destroy military bases, both the ballistic missiles and military bases resolve as true.

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Drone attacks
bought Ṁ150 Drone attacks YES

From the NYT: “Three Western and two Iranian officials confirmed on Friday that Israel had deployed aerial drones and at least one missile fired from a warplane. Previously, Iranian officials said the attack on the military base had been conducted by small drones, most likely launched from inside Iranian territory.”

bought Ṁ50 Ballistic missile la... YES

@Panfilo Iran denies it for now

@ukaszBartoszcze Will US officials and media outlets like ABC not be considered valid for resolution in this market?

bought Ṁ20 Ballistic missile la... YES

@Panfilo Not all missiles are ballistic missiles. It sounds like there's some chance none of the remaining options in this market will resolve YES due to the attack being non-ballistic missiles fired by manned aircraft outside or Iranian territory.

@chrisjbillington And if we don't learn what kind of missile it was?

bought Ṁ50 Drone attacks NO

@Panfilo I don't know. I'm betting assuming that more information will be forthcoming, if it isn't then we'll have an (unfortunately common) problem.

bought Ṁ25 Drone attacks YES

@Panfilo fwiw, air to ground ballistic missiles are very rare. Israel has tons of different AGMs but no publicly known ballistic missiles that are fired from air to ground.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_munitions_used_by_the_Israeli_Air_Force

bought Ṁ2 Ballistic missile la... YES

@SemioticRivalry

Telegraph says “reports have suggested” the Sparrow missile (described as ballistic by Wikipedia)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/04/19/israel-missiles-hit-iran-retaliatory-strike/

@simoj See, this makes me think the early ABC report had a better source than the others rather than being an outlier. Well spotted.

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