WORLD PROP BETS
86%
At least one other answer on this market is not resolved by 9/4 12:01am ET
75%
WORLD PROP BETS happens on Saturday.
1%
Trump is assasinated on 9/3, and the motive was related to something he said at the conference.
Resolved
YES
Mentions his health
Resolved
YES
Trump answers at least 1 question
Resolved
YES
Trump will mention how beautiful a woman is, that is NOT Melania.
Resolved
YES
Press conference happens.
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions J.D. Vance
Resolved
YES
Criticises one or more judge / judicial ruling
Resolved
YES
promotes his or his family's private ventures (eg speaks positively of trump coin or his golf courses)
Resolved
YES
Mentions crime
Resolved
YES
Mentions Los Angeles
Resolved
YES
Mentions Chicago
Resolved
YES
Does a hand gesture (any)
Resolved
YES
Mentions Biden's health
Resolved
YES
Department of Defense mentioned
Resolved
YES
Mentions anything about the US Space Force (eg. Space Command moving from Colorado to Alabama)
Resolved
YES
Says “frankly”
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions Gavin Newsom
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions China
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions Russia
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions India
Resolved
YES
Says “war”
Resolved
YES
Addresses or mentions internet "Trump is Dead" rumors
Resolved
YES
This market gets 100 traders or more
Resolved
YES
Starts at 2:15PM EST or later
Resolved
YES
Answers at least 5 questions
Resolved
YES
Mentions current protests
Resolved
YES
Trump says the word "The"
Resolved
YES
Trump says a word with the letter E in it
Resolved
YES
Will be longer then 30 mins.
Resolved
YES
Is wearing a red tie
Resolved
YES
Starts at 2:30PMEST or later
Resolved
YES
The announcemnet stream is added to Manifold's sidebar
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions Artificial Intelligence / AI
Resolved
YES
Says "AI" or something directly related to it "GPT-5", etc.
Resolved
YES
Trump says the word "Putin"
Resolved
YES
Says “president”
Resolved
YES
Vance speaks at all
Resolved
YES
Anyone other than Trump or Vance speak (excluding reporters)
Resolved
YES
Trump uses a nickname for anyone
Resolved
YES
Mentions EU or any member country
Resolved
YES
Mentions Kamala Harris or Hillary Clinton
Resolved
YES
Says the word “special”
Resolved
YES
Trump speaks from within the United States
Resolved
YES
Trump speaks and answers questions for more than 10 minutes
Resolved
YES
Trump speaks and answers questions for more than 30 minutes
Resolved
YES
Says the word “dollar”
Resolved
YES
Says “water”
Resolved
YES
Trump appears on stream by 3 p.m. ET
Resolved
YES
Addresses school shooting
Resolved
YES
Says “California”
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions any previous president
Resolved
YES
Says “Mexico”
Resolved
YES
Says “drugs”
Resolved
YES
12% This stays the #1 market on manifold until end of press conference
Resolved
YES
Creator extends closing time of this market
Resolved
YES
Trump appears on stream by 2:50 p.m. ET
Resolved
YES
Trump uses a word that is four syllables or more
Resolved
YES
Trump uses a word that is five syllables or more
Resolved
YES
This market has over 200 answers
Resolved
YES
Says the word “wall”
Resolved
YES
Says “Hegseth”
Resolved
YES
Total trading volume on this market exceeds 30K
Resolved
YES
Says the word “NASA”
Resolved
YES
>1.5k trades on this market
Resolved
YES
Says “Canada”
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions Venezuela
Resolved
YES
Says “announcement”
Resolved
YES
Names any specific world leader
Resolved
YES
Says name of any sitting US Congressman or Senator
Resolved
YES
Trump appears on stream by 3:10 pm ET
Resolved
YES
Mentions any current Cabinet secretary
Resolved
YES
Says the word “NATO”
Resolved
YES
Trump announces Space Command moves from Colorado to Alabama
Resolved
YES
Says “friend” or “friends” or “friendship”
Resolved
YES
Says “love” or “lover” or any variant
Resolved
YES
Says “million” or “billion”
Resolved
YES
Mentions a sitting US Governor
Resolved
YES
≥5 people speak
Resolved
YES
Anyone mentions a specific sport
Resolved
YES
≥8 people speak
Resolved
YES
15 or more people speak (including audience and reporters)
Resolved
YES
Trump references White House renovations
Resolved
YES
Will be longer than 40 minutes
Resolved
YES
Volume on this market exceeds 50K
Resolved
YES
Trump to criticize anyone who is currently a Republican
Resolved
YES
Trump unfavorably comments on anyone’s appearance
Resolved
YES
Trump references Federal Reserve
Resolved
YES
Manifold DOESN'T REALLY CARE ABOUT what is said (poll after market)
Resolved
N/A
Manifold HATES what is said (poll after market)
Resolved
N/A
Manifold HATES what is said (poll after market)
Resolved
50%
Conference is about diplomatic relations/other countries (will ask in comments if edge case)
Resolved
N/A
Trump audibly laughs
Resolved
N/A
Manifold LOVES what it says (poll after market)
Resolved
N/A
Trump dies within a week of the announcement being made
Resolved
NO
Announces a new tariff or changes a tariff
Resolved
NO
Mentions border control/policy
Resolved
NO
Deploys National Guard anywhere
Resolved
NO
Mentions 2028 election
Resolved
NO
Has a stroke
Resolved
NO
Doctor on standby
Resolved
NO
Resigns
Resolved
NO
Declares Martial Law
Resolved
NO
Says "Manifold Markets"
Resolved
NO
Trump will admit he was on the Epstein list.
Resolved
NO
Trump will mention this market
Resolved
NO
Tips the podium over (or falls out of a chair)
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions the number of migrants deported since inaguration.
Resolved
NO
Trump will mention LGBTQ.
Resolved
NO
Trump dies during the conference
Resolved
NO
Protest occurs after the conference based on what is said.
Resolved
NO
Trump goes on his phone during the conference
Resolved
NO
Mentions Israel/something related to Middle East Crisis
Resolved
NO
mentions golf
Resolved
NO
spends most of the press conference seated
Resolved
NO
Mentions New York
Resolved
NO
Trump is not at the White House
Resolved
NO
JD Vance is the main speaker
Resolved
NO
S&P500 trades under US$6350 before the end of the press conference
Resolved
NO
S&P500 trades above US$6410 at end of the press conference
Resolved
NO
Says “astronaut”
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions SpaceX
Resolved
NO
Says “fight” or variant
Resolved
NO
BTC trades above USDT112k before the end of the press conference
Resolved
NO
Addresses Epstein in any way
Resolved
NO
BTC trades below USDT106k before the end of the press conference
Resolved
NO
Says “lie” or variant (liar, lying, etc)
Resolved
NO
Addresses budget or shutdown
Resolved
NO
Mentions Elon Musk
Resolved
NO
It's not exclusively focused on the Space Force
Resolved
NO
Nucelear war begins between the start-->end
Resolved
NO
Trump laughs
Resolved
NO
Will donald trump make a 9/11 joke (Not mentions, has to be joke)
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions anything about extraterrestrials (lifeforms not originating from Earth; Space aliens)
Resolved
NO
bruise visible on trump's hand
Resolved
NO
DoD renaming announced
Resolved
NO
Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"
Resolved
NO
Assisination attempt takes place against Trump
Resolved
NO
Turns out he died today, that's why the conference hasn't started
Resolved
NO
Trump says the word "Autism"
Resolved
NO
Trump appears visibly unhealthier than usual (according to market creator's judgement)
Resolved
NO
Melania appears on screen
Resolved
NO
Rubio speaks at all
Resolved
NO
Anyone says "Manifold Markets"
Resolved
NO
Trump says "rationalussy"
Resolved
NO
Says “Massie” or refers to him
Resolved
NO
The dude walking on the beach in the shot speaks
Resolved
NO
Sam Altman appears on stream
Resolved
NO
Trump says "Deltarune"
Resolved
NO
Anyone mentions Polymarket
Resolved
NO
Mentions any news outlet by name
Resolved
NO
Says the word “freedom”
Resolved
NO
Trump is obviously being Weekend at Bernies'ed around
Resolved
NO
Trump plays the guitar live
Resolved
NO
Trump is in Walter Reed Medical Center
Resolved
NO
Specifically names a past war (Vietnam, WWII, etc)
Resolved
NO
Starts at 3PMEST or later
Resolved
NO
Announces his OF account.
Resolved
NO
Trump speaks and answers questions for more than an hour
Resolved
NO
Trump gets hospitalized
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions the possibility of him running in 2028
Resolved
NO
The rumors are true... (something happened to Trump)
Resolved
NO
Barron Trump appears on screen
Resolved
NO
Theo Von appears on stream
Resolved
NO
Trump says the word "Moon"
Resolved
NO
Trump appears on stream by 2:45 p.m. ET
Resolved
NO
Trump appears on stream by 2:40 p.m. ET
Resolved
NO
Says “Texas”
Resolved
NO
Trump pulls out a cane and top hat and starts dancing
Resolved
NO
Delay due to Trump's health's reasons
Resolved
NO
Trump diagnosed with testicular cancer
Resolved
NO
This stays the #1 market on manifold until Trump dies
Resolved
NO
Names any specific drug - prescription or illegal
Resolved
NO
Trump cries
Resolved
NO
Trump does a Nazi salute
Resolved
NO
Trump sings
Resolved
NO
Any reason for the delay will be given before end of the press conference
Resolved
NO
Trump says at least two words in a row in a non-English language
Resolved
NO
Stream cancelled due to Trump being dead
Resolved
NO
Trump quotes from Horace
Resolved
NO
Trump quotes Shakespeare
Resolved
NO
Trump quotes from Horace in the original
Resolved
NO
Trump coughs, sneezes, or blows his nose
Resolved
NO
That dude standing out in the water in this beach video visibly drowns
Resolved
NO
That dude standing out in the water in the beach video is Trump
Resolved
NO
Charles III is mentioned
Resolved
NO
Anyone says "Gaza"
Resolved
NO
Expresses an emotion, along lines of "I feel happy", "It made me sad", "Because I was angry"
Resolved
NO
Most traded answer to this market has at least 50 traders
Resolved
NO
Trump quotes the Federalist Papers (three or more words in a row)
Resolved
NO
Cancelled (not due to health reasons)
Resolved
NO
Trump mispronounces a word
Resolved
NO
Says the word “adversary” or “adversaries”
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions Hard Rock
Resolved
NO
Starts at 3:30PM or later
Resolved
NO
Mentions Rudy Giuliani
Resolved
NO
Trump says "Shadow the Hedgehog"
Resolved
NO
Says the word “hand”
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions Silksong
Resolved
NO
A Nintendo Switch 2 is visible on stream at any point
Resolved
NO
Trump sings the entirety of Don't Forget from Deltarune
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions a major tech CEO by name
Resolved
NO
Mentions OpenAI
Resolved
NO
Says “doctor”
Resolved
NO
References any religion (e.g. Muslim, Islam, Christian)
Resolved
NO
Says the word “magic”
Resolved
NO
Says “strange”
Resolved
NO
Anyone says a curse word
Resolved
NO
Trump says the word “dictator”
Resolved
NO
Trump says the word “Israel”
Resolved
NO
Trump says the word “Palestine”
Resolved
NO
Trump says the word “nasty”
Resolved
NO
Says the word “cancer”
Resolved
NO
Says “Mar A Lago”
Resolved
NO
Says “ICE”
Resolved
NO
Trump says “rape”
Resolved
NO
Trump says “hate”
Resolved
NO
Mentions ≥10 US states
Resolved
NO
Trump references third term
Resolved
NO
Trump references an alcoholic beverage
Resolved
NO
Trump says “Alaska”
Resolved
NO
Trump references Mamdani
Resolved
NO
Names at least 7 sitting US Governors
Resolved
NO
Will be longer than 50 minutes
Resolved
NO
Says “DEI”
Resolved
NO
Volume on this market exceeds 60K
Resolved
NO
Trump calls for any specific person to face criminal charges or other criminal penalties
Resolved
NO
Trump names a specific Supreme Court justice
Resolved
NO
Mentions >12 countries
Resolved
NO
Says “balanced budget”
Resolved
NO
Mentions >15 countries
Resolved
NO
Says “freeload” or variant
Resolved
NO
Says “Modi”
Resolved
NO
Discusses climate change or energy
Resolved
NO
Says “fentanyl”
Resolved
NO
Says “fired”
Resolved
NO
Says “immigrant”
Resolved
NO
Says “deport” or variant
Resolved
NO
References RFK, HHS, or CDC
Resolved
NO
Anyone says “vaccine”
Resolved
NO
Trump says YIMBY or NIMBY
Resolved
NO
Over 25 unique people speak (including reporters)
Resolved
NO
Conference is over 75 minutes
Resolved
NO
Conference is over 90 minutes
Resolved
NO
Trump says “Asian” or “Hispanic”
Resolved
NO
longer then 50 mins.
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