State of the Union Address 2026
1.4%
Clapping lasts 10+ minutes
97%
Trump mentions Melania's movie
99.4%
Someone in the background looks sleepy
99%
Trump demands funding for DHS
1.3%
Trump says "take the/this country back"
5%
Trump does the accordion thing with his hands during the speech
98.4%
"Great" said 10+ times
1.2%
50% or more of the options on this market (not including this one) resolve Yes
60%
Trump compliments 3 members of his administration (each by name, not role)
2%
Trump mentions a mayor or governor by name
98.4%
Trump says "beautiful" more than 5 times
1%
Trump mentions abortion, abortion policy, or the pro-life movement
99.4%
Epstein survivor(s) in attendance
1%
Designated Survivor(s) Assumes Presidency within 48hr of speech
0.9%
Trump says "Job" 30+ times
99.1%
Trump says America / American 50+ times
1%
UFOs or Aliens mentioned
0.9%
President trump drinks water during state of the union address?
99.1%
Supreme court judge seen clapping?
1.3%
Trump says mr speaker
1%
Trump says job 20 or more times
99%
Trump says border 7 or more times
1%
Trump says Biden 10 or more times
7%
China is mentioned by trump
1.2%
Panama is mentioned by trump
1.1%
Trump mentions the Nobel Peace Prize
4%
Trump mentions ICE
4%
Mitch McConnell attends
90%
Obama is mentioned by trump
19%
Someone is censured within a week because of the way they acted at the address
7%
2020 election is mentioned
8%
Palestine is mentioned
2%
Hoax is mentioned by trump
1.3%
Woke is mentioned by Donald trump
2%
Non-US World Leader in attendance
97%
Someone in audience holds up prop during speech
98.8%
Someone is removed from the chamber during the speech
1.9%
US territory is mentioned
Resolved
NO
Zohran/Mamdani is mentioned by trump
Resolved
YES
Supreme Court Justices clap in response to at least one thing
Resolved
YES
Trump mispronounces the name of a country
Resolved
NO
Board of Peace is mentioned
Resolved
YES
"Hamas" will be mentioned
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions Polymarket
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions any PM exchange or PMs themselves
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions the (Trump-) Kennedy Center
Resolved
NO
Says Newsom/Newscum
Resolved
NO
YMCA song plays
Resolved
NO
Trump says Fake News
Resolved
NO
Trump has or is wearing the gold medal
Resolved
NO
Kid Rock in attendance
Resolved
NO
Trump says “Make America Great Again” More than 10 times
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions or refers to the ballroom
Resolved
NO
SOTU is more than 1 hour and 55 minutes
Resolved
NO
Trump says “ballroom”
Resolved
NO
Trump comments about seeing/holding/wearing/similar the gold medal from the US Men's Hockey team
Resolved
NO
The name "Guthrie" is said.
Resolved
NO
SOTU is more than 2 hours
Resolved
NO
Trump says assassination
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions Iceland, Sweden or Finland
Resolved
NO
Nicki Minaj in attendance
Resolved
NO
Trump confirms that alien life exists (leading to YES resolution on Kalshi/PM)
Resolved
NO
Trump says "transgender for everybody/everyone"
Resolved
NO
Attack against Iran is announced
Resolved
NO
Zohran mamdani in attendance?
Resolved
NO
Trump says MAGA or make America great again
Resolved
NO
Trump says bitcoin or crypto
Resolved
NO
Donald Trumps truth social account posts a truth while he is speaking?
Resolved
NO
Benjamin Netanyahu is in attendance
Resolved
NO
Trump goes to sleep, faints or has medical event
Resolved
NO
Trump mentions if he'll go to heaven or not
Resolved
NO
Any Clinton is mentioned
Resolved
NO
Epstein is mentioned by trump
Resolved
NO
Kamala is mentioned by Donald trump
Resolved
NO
Greenland is mentioned by Donald trump
Resolved
NO
AI video is used
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk is in attendance
Resolved
NO
Putin will be mentioned by name
Resolved
YES
Nancy Pelosi attends
Resolved
YES
Susan Collins is in attendance
Resolved
YES
Ilhan Omar is in attendance
Resolved
YES
Trump says new york
Resolved
YES
Iran is mentioned
Resolved
YES
Trumps address goes for over 100 minutes (see comment for rules)
Resolved
YES
President will get heckled or booed
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions Nicolás Maduro
Resolved
YES
"Israel" will be mentioned
Resolved
YES
Ukraine is mentioned
Resolved
YES
Erika Kirk in attendance
Resolved
YES
Charlie Kirk mentioned
Resolved
YES
Donald Trump mentions transgenderness or a transgender person
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions any election rigging, including an unambiguous comment about how he won in 2020
Resolved
YES
Somalia/somali is mentioned by trump
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions IVF, or any GLP-1s (by name)
Resolved
YES
Trump says Million / Billion / Trillion 15+ times
Resolved
NO
AOC is in attendance
Resolved
YES
Trump says AI / Artificial Intelligence 2+ times
Resolved
YES
Trump talks tarriffs
Resolved
YES
Talk of prescription drug pricing
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions another US president by name
Resolved
NO
Trump dies before event
Resolved
YES
Trump says any variation of "rip off"
Resolved
NO
No supreme Court judges in attendance
Resolved
NO
Agriculture Secretary is Designated Survivor
Resolved
YES
Affordability is mentioned
Resolved
NO
Clarence Thomas is in attendance
Resolved
NO
Trump, Vance and Mike Johnson all are wearing the exact same tie
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions the Dow
Resolved
YES
Barron Trump attends
Resolved
NO
Every current Supreme Court justice in attendance
Resolved
YES
John Fetterman in attendance
Resolved
YES
Jd Vance and Mike Johnson are sitting behind Donald trump
Resolved
YES
President wearing a tie with any red
Resolved
YES
5 or more people coordinate outfits
Resolved
NO
2026 State of the Union address is canceled
Resolved
YES
State of the Union address is given by Trump
Resolved
NO
No elected Democrats in attendance
Resolved
YES
Biden is mentioned by Donald trump
Resolved
YES
Trump says Supreme Court
Resolved
YES
Trump says his own name
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions Texas
Resolved
YES
World Cup mentioned
Resolved
YES
World Cup mentioned
Resolved
YES
Olympics are mentioned by Trump
Resolved
YES
Starts 10+ minutes late
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