Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, the United States government officially expresses support for the current Iranian regime through formal statements, agreements, or policies. Official expressions include, but are not limited to:

• Public endorsements by the President or Secretary of State.

• Formal diplomatic agreements or treaties recognizing or supporting the Iranian government.

• Legislative actions by Congress that indicate support for the Iranian regime.

The market will resolve to "No" if no such official support is expressed by the specified date. The primary sources for resolution will be official U.S. government communications, such as press releases from the White House or the Department of State, and legislative records from Congress.

Background

The United States and Iran have had a complex and often adversarial relationship since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The U.S. has historically imposed sanctions on Iran and has been critical of its nuclear program and regional activities. (en.wikipedia.org)

The "America First" policy, prominently advocated by President Donald Trump, emphasizes prioritizing U.S. national interests, often leading to unilateral actions and a focus on domestic concerns over international engagements. This approach has influenced U.S. foreign policy decisions, including those related to Iran. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

• Historical Context: Given the longstanding tensions between the U.S. and Iran, a shift toward supporting the Iranian regime would represent a significant change in U.S. foreign policy.

• Policy Implications: The "America First" doctrine focuses on U.S. interests, which may not align with supporting the Iranian regime. Any support would likely be contingent on perceived benefits to U.S. national interests.

• Verification: Traders should monitor official U.S. government channels, such as the White House and Department of State websites, for any statements or policies indicating support for the Iranian regime.