Will Julian sustain this pace on Twitter?
Effective Altruism
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Ṁ110
resolved Aug 18
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YES

On July 30, 2022, I replied to a tweet from @ferrishueller, aka MF FOOM (Julian), with the following forecast: "You can't possibly sustain this pace of bangers." At the time, Julian had posted 13 tweets that currently have more than 20 likes in the previous 72 hours. (He currently has 12 in the last 72, though this could increase as tweets from this period continue circulating.) I expect that the like-to-quality ratio will increase as Julian gets more followers, so this question asks:

Will that account post 26 tweets on August 8-13, inclusive, BST, that have more than 25 likes at the end of August 18?

Close date updated to 2022-08-18 11:59 pm

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predicted YES

He's at 25 by my count (but a few with 20-24 that could cross the line by the 18th) and has 10 more hours

He has 18 already on August 8-11, with like 2.3 days to go and then 5 more days for the tweets to accumulate likes; I think he's got it.

predicted YES

@trevor Oh I thought I put waay more on this lol

bought Ṁ5 of YES

"The times we live in are unusual and unstable. We shouldn't be surprised if something wacky happens, like [witnessing an unprecedented quantity of banger tweets]. In fact, such an explosion would arguably be right on trend."

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