Did Robert F Kennedy Jr really have a worm in his brain?
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Nov 5
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Robert F Kennedy Jr claims to have a parasitic worm in his brain: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/rfk-jr-brain-health-memory-loss.html - this will resolve false if this is reported to be false before the election, true otherwise.

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Campaign isn’t denying it… resolve YES?

“RFK Jr.'s campaign says the worm that ate part of his brain will not affect his ability to serve as president.“

https://t.co/b4rkyXnRbx

@ooah0 this won’t resolve until the election - the interesting question imo is less whether the nytimes reporting is accurate and more are RFKs own claims about the worm accurate.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@tr This is a great market, don't let the people bullying you on this site get you down.

@Predictor lol. To be clear I didn't mean to bully the guy who made it. It's funny though.

I don't like how this resolves yes in the absence of reports even though the answer to the headline question is obviously no.

@nathanwei the article reports the worm is dead, but it doesn't sound like he had it removed - not sure what happens to the dead worm inside the brain. I imagine it is surrounded in a cyst and remains.

@tr from the article: Scott Gardner, curator of the Manter Laboratory for Parasitology at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said that once any worm is in a brain, cells calcify around it. “And you’re going to basically have almost like a tumor that’s there forever. It’s not going to go anywhere.”

Isn't the claim that he used to have a brain worm? So you shouldn't use the present tense.

@tr I'd like to use my mod powers to correct this, any objection?

bought Ṁ25 YES

@Joshua valid, but I think resolution criteria is fine

@TimothyBandors But people might be betting on different understandings of the question. Technically speaking, even if RFK did have a parasite in his brain it died long ago and isn't there anymore. Some people might argue the question should therefore resolve NO even if all the details in the report are confirmed as true.

I think this is a better version of the question:

Anyways, I am going to edit the title from "does" to "did". I think the resolution criteria have problems even with this change, but I'll leave that for OP to sort out I guess.

@Joshua thanks for the edit - that is better.

@Joshua a dead worm is still a worm?

Could you explain in a bit more detail what "reported to be false" would look like?

@Daniel_MC Perhaps the worm will deny it. Once we can determine when its the original RFK talking and when its the worm talking we should be able to do a proper interview.

Credible reporting and general media consensus that he did not have a worm - for example reporting that RFK did have brain cancer in 2012 and the worm was a misdiagnosis would resolve this no. I'm not betting on the market and will do my best to judge that fairly.

@Tumbles 🤣🤣🤣

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