Who will win the 2024 Neoliberal Shill Bracket? [Parimutuel]
Who will win the 2024 Neoliberal Shill Bracket? [Parimutuel]
8
580Ṁ596resolved Apr 9
100%89%
Joey Politano
3%Other
0.0%
Laura Duffy
0.6%
1.6%
Jerusalem Demsas
2%
Wojtek Kopczuk
1.8%
Ryan Radia
1.3%
Francis Fukuyama
0.1%
M. Nolan Gray
0.1%
0.8%
Ethan Wolf
UPDATE: This question uses the old mechanism for multiple choice markets. This means that your payout if you win is not fixed, and that it is not always correct to bet your true beliefs. I highly recommend betting on the new version of this market instead, which has fixed payouts. Both markets will resolve the same way.
This market will be set to resolve whenever the final poll closes.
The market for last year's bracket:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.