What will the maximum temperature be in the UK over the coming summer?
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predicted HIGHER

summer is over, can you resolve? @tkillestein

predicted HIGHER

Temperatures hit 38.1C at Santon Downham in Suffolk on July 18, then rose even further to peak at a record 40.3C in Coningsby in Lincolnshire on July 19 – the first time 40C had been exceeded in the UK.

@PeterBuyukliev That was last year in July… actually looks like this year the max will be the record set in June, which is 32.2. I know August is normally supposed to be the warmest month but it doesn’t look like it’ll break that record in June right now looking at medium range forecasts. EFI forecasts does show a small percent (1 to 10%) or so of some temps at the end of next week (Thursday 17th to Friday 18th) that are in the range that could break the record however.

Here is the data for June and July that shows what the maximum were for June and July 2023:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/summaries/mwr_2023_07_for_print_v1.pdf

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/summaries/mwr_2023_06_for_print.pdf

Hottest so far is ~32.2 C in June. https://www.meteorologicaltechnologyinternational.com/news/climate-measurement/uk-met-office-confirms-june-2023-as-hottest-on-record.html#:~:text=%E2%80%9CJune%20started%20with%20a%20good,C%20the%20highest%20temperature%20reached.


July hasn't reached that temp and hottest is 30.8 C:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/wetter-cooler-no-heatwave-july-112358454.html#:~:text=Temperatures%20hit%2038.1C%20at,been%20exceeded%20in%20the%20UK.&text=This%20month%20has%20been%20cooler,in%20Surrey%20on%20July%207.

The record high in August is 38.5C set in 2003: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_weather_records


Medium-long range forecast here (until August 17) is nothing record breaking:
https://inews.co.uk/news/august-hot-uk-will-met-office-weather-forecast-heatwave-coming-britain-2491423

According to extended range forecast the temp anomaly is 0-1 C for Last August-Sep (to Sep. 4)
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/extended-range-forecasts

The historical chart from here (different data set for highs) makes it seem even with a 1 C anomaly it will unlikely beat the June temperature:
https://www.rmets.org/metmatters/highs-and-lows-daily-temperature-records

Based on this I think this market might resolve to 32 C, unless someone else can find a temperature record for UK. As the market is at 38 C I am betting LOWER to shift it downwards.

@parhizj Doesn't look like the max temp will be above the record set so far looking at EFI medium range, and extended range forecasts