US Rep. Mike Turner posted a warning, reportedly referring to Russian plans for nuclear weapons in space

https://x.com/houseintel/status/1757805804885823775?s=46

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-plans-brief-lawmakers-house-chairman-warns/story?id=107232293

Resolves yes immediately if there is clear evidence of a nuclear weapon (designed for either satellite or ground targets) in space, or if Russia plausibly claims that they have successfully launched such a weapon.

If the US claims that such a weapon exists and Russia denies it, then the market will resolve according to the best evidence presented to me at the end of 2024

What is a nuclear weapon?

• Must be a weapon: intended to damage another nation’s military or civilian infrastructure or cause loss of life

• Must be nuclear: damage is primarily caused by the radiation emitted by a prompt nuclear fission or fusion reaction, or immediate downstream effects thereof.

Examples:

• A space-launched nuclear missile intended for low-atmosphere detonation

• A satellite-to-satellite nuclear missile

• A nuclear EMP / “super EMP” designed to take out satellite communications

Non-Examples:

• A satellite-to-satellite conventional missile, EMP or laser platform that is electronically powered by a fission reactor

• An ICBM that enters space but does not enter orbit

• Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - The market will close as NO in 5 days unless someone can present compelling evidence for YES. (AI summary of creator comment)