Will Russia have a nuclear weapon in Earth orbit in 2024?
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2025
8%
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US Rep. Mike Turner posted a warning, reportedly referring to Russian plans for nuclear weapons in space

https://x.com/houseintel/status/1757805804885823775?s=46

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-plans-brief-lawmakers-house-chairman-warns/story?id=107232293

Resolves yes immediately if there is clear evidence of a nuclear weapon (designed for either satellite or ground targets) in space, or if Russia plausibly claims that they have successfully launched such a weapon.

If the US claims that such a weapon exists and Russia denies it, then the market will resolve according to the best evidence presented to me at the end of 2024

What is a nuclear weapon?

  • Must be a weapon: intended to damage another nation’s military or civilian infrastructure or cause loss of life

  • Must be nuclear: damage is primarily caused by the radiation emitted by a prompt nuclear fission or fusion reaction, or immediate downstream effects thereof.

Examples:

  • A space-launched nuclear missile intended for low-atmosphere detonation

  • A satellite-to-satellite nuclear missile

  • A nuclear EMP / “super EMP” designed to take out satellite communications

Non-Examples:

  • A satellite-to-satellite conventional missile, EMP or laser platform that is electronically powered by a fission reactor

  • An ICBM that enters space but does not enter orbit

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Would a weapon (such as an EMP) that is nuclear powered count? Or would it need to be a nuclear bomb of some kind?

@Nat Yes, a nuclear EMP would count

@Nat added some clarification and examples

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