Sweepcash vs. Mana: which will more accurately predict swing states in the 2024 presidential election? | Manifold

Sweepcash vs. Mana: which will more accurately predict swing states in the 2024 presidential election?

Basic

13

Ṁ220

resolved Nov 9

1D

1W

1M

ALL

100%43%

Sweepcash

57%

Mana

Resolves to the market type with the lowest cumulative squared difference between the odds at 12:00 AM EST Nov 5, and resolution for each of these seven markets:

/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-arizona-in-the-2024--cash

/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-georgia-in-the-2024

/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-michigan-in-the-2024

/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-nevada-in-the-2024-p

/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-north-carolina-in-th

/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-pennsylvania-in-the

/ManifoldPolitics/will-trump-win-wisconsin-in-the-202

The formula for cumulative squared difference:

The two CSD values are calculated for the 7 Sweepcash markets and the 7 Mana markets, and the market resolves to the lower value. The resolution value is 1.00 for YES and 0.00 for NO.

Here is a hypothetical example outcome:

In this example, Mana resolves YES.

If the CSD for both types is exactly the same, this market resolves to 50% each.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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@traders The Sweepcash markets were slightly more indicative of a full Trump swing state sweep, with an error approximately 7% lower.

@traders Here are the probabilities as of midnight that will be used for calculating accuracy. Best of luck.

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