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MANIFOLD
[Short Fuse] How much will Beryl restrengthen?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ1.8k
resolved Jul 11
100%99.5%
Category 1 (74-95 mph)
0.1%
Tropical storm (not more than 73 mph)
0.3%
Category 2 (96-110 mph)
0.2%
Category 3+ (>111 mph)

Resolves YES to the maximum strength of Hurricane Beryl after leaving Yucatan on July 5. The market will resolve after Beryl weakens to extratropical status.

Strength is defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale, the 1-minute sustained wind speed recorded at 10 meters above surface and published by NHC.

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@thepurplebull I believe this can resolve now. Beryl is now post-tropical:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAWPCAT2+shtml/091436.shtml

Upgraded to 70kt recently in latest intermediate advisory:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/080542.shtml?

bought Ṁ750 NO
bought Ṁ5 YES

Latest 00Z fix puts on GFS/ECMWF roughly on track for their forecasted time (GFS 18Z has 00Z at (lat,lon): 27.25, -95.5 with vmax of 52kt)

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 95.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

HMON 18Z was closest in intensity and track for 00Z (among HAFSA,HAFSB, HWRF, GFS, ECMWF)