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Based on the last eight quarterly earnings, mean has been $127.99 million, with a st dev of $12,276, by calculating and assuming a normal distribution (1-norm.dist()), there is a 13.56% probability that Amazon will hit its target. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net sales in Q3 is $141.61 billion, which is an expected growth of 11.4% compared to the previous year. And apparently, "Earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed the same once, the average surprise being 40.96%".

Analysts are predicting strong results much due to increased growth from AWS. What could speak against expected growth is foreign exchange effects on international sales, current geopolitical tension and consumers being more aware of current spending. Given analysts' strong prediction of high growth in sales, though a low calculated probability, I will bet that Amazon will surpass its target for tomorrow's Q3 earnings.

https://my.pitchbook.com/profile/11919-79/company/financials/KEY_METRICS

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect-ahead-amazons-amzn-q3-112500060.html

https://www.ig.com/en/news-and-trade-ideas/amazon-q3-earnings-preview--what-to-expect-from-aws--revenue-and-231018

What to Expect Ahead of Amazon's (AMZN) Q3 Earnings Release?

Amazon's (AMZN) third-quarter results are expected to reflect strength across its Prime and cloud businesses and the smart device portfolio.