I am a programmer and designer planning on using these 200, and 250 dollars per month subscriptions
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, after 36 hours of use, I determine that the OpenAI Pro subscription is better than the Gemini Ultra subscription for my programming and design needs. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
Background
OpenAI Pro Subscription: Priced at $200 per month, this plan offers unlimited access to OpenAI's most advanced models.
Gemini Ultra Subscription: This plan includes advanced AI features and integration with Google services.
Considerations
Feature Comparison: Evaluate the specific features and capabilities of each subscription to determine which aligns better with my programming and design requirements.
Specific video generation needs
Integration and Usability: Assess how well each subscription integrates with my existing tools and workflows, and their ease of use in daily tasks.
To get more specific I basically just use deep research, o3, sora, and operator. So I will compare these features on some broad challenging daily tasks like: create a plan for my research, help me unstuck an emotional problem, generate a video meme for my brother or for a specific groupchat, and most importantly help me draft some funny tweets.
For text queries wherever possible I will query the models through a blind api in blind ordering (link). Where this isn’t possible I will ask for a second opinion, where that person doesn’t know which model did what.
Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The determination of which subscription is better will be based on raw usefulness. The difference in subscription cost will not be a factor in this determination.
Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Claude Opus 4 will not be evaluated as part of this comparison.
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The market resolved for openai Pro, and by a large margin (this is before gpt-5 release). Gemini Ultra had better ceiling of video generation quality, but video is a very small percent of my use cases, and openAI was better at coding and research tasks. Gemini is also better at shopping related tasks. I get the sense that gemini performance is jagged, with some really bright spots but also some big deficits vs the smooth usefulness of openai's models. overall openai got a score of 68/90 and gemini got a score of 52/90.
I will continue my openai pro subscription but cancel gemini ultra.
Here is the decision doc:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ulwhEnDZndUEs1oL8XY0RfWcUdU8aNy5QzNoe2N_LdA/edit?usp=sharing
By the way, will this be evaluating these on a sort of cost basis at all? in other words, will the usefulness you feel Gemini Ultra provides you need to be (estimated) 25% better than what you got from OpenAI Pro, since it's $50 more expensive?
Or is this just a raw which is more useful to me?