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Very close but looks like they're not gonna make it. Best time so far is Player 5 at 46m 25s

@chrisjbillington well, I regret not finding this market earlier, because this graph is way misleading. The game contains minutes and minutes of cutscenes. Also, 30 days is nothing when it comes to getting good at difficult tricks; it's still "newbie gains" territory. The curve will flatten out right about now.

@VitorBosshard What's misleading about it? Looks like exponential decay toward some limit a couple of minutes below the current record, to me.

Made a market that's more realistic IMO:

https://manifold.markets/VitorBosshard/will-anyone-reach-a-sub47-minute-an?r=Vml0b3JCb3NzaGFyZA

Will anyone reach a sub-47 minute Any% Speedrun of Tears of the Kingdom by July 31, 2023?

50% chance. Resolves yes if any person achieves a successful Speedrun of Totk (any version) with a time that is less than 47 minutes by July 31, 2023. Only verified runs accepted by the speedrunning community (e.g. on a site like speedrunning.com) will count. NOTE: if there is a community consensu…

@chrisjbillington I believe sub 45 would require finding multiple skips/tricks to the point where the route will be significantly different. Just optimizing the current route probably won't do it.

@VitorBosshard Does that view still hold if rules permit the initial cutscene to be skipped (as it seems they do, did you verify that?)

Edit: it seems this is just a practicality - the time of the cutscene still counts, but speed runners are allowed to start from a save file after the cutscene rather than having to sit through it. Just lets them iterate faster and does not make a difference to the recorded times.

Does it matter what version?

@AlexWilson Any version is fine. I will update description

Title says 45 min but description says 45 sec; I suggest fixing the description :)