I am fascinated by Isaac King's resolution criterion here. I am not sure whether I agree or disagree with it being reasonable, and so I thought I would create this market to incentivize more investigation into it.
David Duke is a long-time critic of Jewish and Black people. Maybe also Asians too; I am not familiar with the intricacies of his views. In particular, from 1974 to 1980, he had the position as the Grand Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan (i.e. the position as their leader). I think most people would consider him the archetypal White supremacist, but at the same time I have seen quotes of him disavowing the label, and have struggled to find quotes that unambiguously mark him as a White supremacist by Isaac King's criterion. (There were some ambiguous quotes, so YMMV.)
Please suggest quotes from David Duke which you think might qualify as White supremacy by Isaac King's definition. I will ask Isaac King to evaluate whether such quotes would "clearly attempting to normalize or encourage white supremacy" in the Scott Alexander question.
If Isaac King says that a quote counts as normalizing/encouraging White supremacy, then the market will count it as an instance of normalizing/encouraging White supremacy, regardless of whether I agree with Isaac King's judgement.
If he does not say anything about a quote, or says that a quote does not count as normalizing/encouraging White supremacy, then the market will count it as not being an instance of normalizing/encouraging White supremacy, regardless of whether I agree with Isaac King's judgement.
Since David Duke is broadly considered a key figure within White supremacy, it seems uninformative to me whether he has ever promoted it by Isaac King's criterion; I expect enough noise that the answer will probably be yes. Instead, the market resolves to the number of distinct years in which David Duke has promoted White supremacy, as evidenced by the quotes that can be found up to the close date. The purpose of this is to measure his overall consistency in promoting White supremacy. If no quotes can be found, the market resolves to 1 to preserve logarithmic neatness.
Update: Isaac King expects that the history of the KKK implies that one can take for granted that its members believe white people should be treated as better than black people. If so, this would automatically imply that David Duke's leadership of and defense of the KKK is promoting and normalizing white supremacy. However, we don't actually know much about the KKK, so people are encouraged to suggest evidence for or against this proposition. He can then evaluate things based on that information, and apply similar standards to Scott Alexander in the other market.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ7 | |
2 | Ṁ0 | |
3 | Ṁ0 |