Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the Supreme Court of Virginia issues a final ruling that validates the April 21, 2026, redistricting referendum, effectively overturning the April 22, 2026, order by the Tazewell County Circuit Court that declared the results "ineffective." The market will resolve to NO if the Supreme Court of Virginia rules that the referendum is unconstitutional, invalid, or otherwise upholds the Tazewell County Circuit Court's block on the redistricting effort.

Official records, court dockets, and rulings published by the Supreme Court of Virginia or the Virginia Department of Elections will be the primary sources for resolution. If no final ruling is issued before the close date, this market will extend until resolution.

Background

On April 21, 2026, Virginia voters participated in a special election referendum concerning a proposed constitutional amendment to allow the General Assembly to temporarily redraw congressional districts. The measure was approved by a narrow margin.

Following the vote, on April 22, 2026, Judge Jack Hurley Jr. of the Tazewell County Circuit Court issued an order blocking the certification of the referendum results. The court found that the referendum violated state constitutional requirements, citing issues with public notice and the phrasing of the ballot question, and declared the votes "ineffective." The state attorney general has indicated plans to appeal this ruling to higher courts. The Virginia Supreme Court already stayed Hurley's rulings twice before the vote.

This market tracks the ultimate legal determination by the Supreme Court of Virginia regarding the validity of the referendum results. If the Virginia Supreme Court issues rulings on multiple pending lawsuits, this market resolves based on whether the referendum results are ultimately certified and the new maps take effect.