# Noah Syrkis's calibration

Grade: F, Score: NaN

Resolution probability

Probability after trade

**Interpretation**

- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Noah Syrkis traded YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no trades times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of trades weighted by trade amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).

YES trades

NO trades

3 largest trades for each bucket