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Of course I'd bet NO on Feb 27th, and then the 28th and 29th would have incidents lmao

@LuisCostigan It was good ev, in the long run these unlucky events dont matter

and you’re doing well! To the moon with or without flukes 🚀

Welp, the final incident has appeared. Resolves Yes.

There was an incident yesterday, making 9 incident days. As long as there are no incidents today this will resolve no.

@qqii with 9 days of incidents out of 28 days, base probability should be around 32%, right?

@RatUziCat if you assume incidents to be independent, and without taking into account the day being partially passed.

If you do assume independence, I count 8 incidents in December and 10 in January for a base probability of 30%.

@RatUziCat time decay. half the day passed, and it should be around 50% of 32%, but also there are more errors later in the day, so the price seems about right

@Bayesian I'm not seeing significantly more errors later in the day from the historical logs?

@sylv - total # of incidents so far in Feb is 12. Market could probably resolve YES.

February 2024

1. ChatGPT error rate

A fix has been implemented and we are monitoring the results.

Feb 23, 10:32 PST

2. Unexpected responses from ChatGPT

ChatGPT is operating normally.

Feb 20, 15:40 - 23:14 PST

3. Elevated error rate impacting ChatGPT (including logins)

   This incident has been resolved.

Feb 14, 10:20 - 12:40 PST

4. Elevated error rate impacting API services (including Assistants and Fine-tuning)

This incident has been resolved.

Feb 14, 07:06 - 12:40 PST

5. Elevated errors on GPT-4V for ChatGPT and API

This incident has been resolved.

Feb 13, 07:03 - Feb 14, 12:40 PST

6. Elevated error rate impacting ChatGPT (including logins)

chat.openai.com was not accessible between 8:47am - 9:28am PST / 4:47pm - 5.28pm UTC. We have deployed a fix and the website is now accessible.

Feb 14, 07:03 - 09:45 PST

7. Elevated errors across multiple API endpoints and ChatGPT

This incident has been resolved.

Feb 13, 12:11 - 15:38 PST

8. Elevated errors on GPT-4V for ChatGPT and API

This incident has been resolved.

Feb 12, 09:19 - 10:39 PST

9. Elevated error rate affecting Voice on ChatGPT

This incident has been resolved.

Feb 10, 05:43 - 07:08 PST

10. Elevated errors on GPT-4V for ChatGPT and API

This incident has been resolved.

Feb 9, 15:50 - 19:45 PST

11. Elevated errors indexing files in Assistants API

This incident has been resolved.

Feb 9, 12:03 - 12:21 PST

12. Elevated errors across ChatGPT and API

After monitoring, this incident is resolved.

Feb 5, 16:45 - 16:50 PST

8 separate days with incidents, need 2 more on 6 days to resolve YES

for a probability of ~8/23 that any one day has an incident, 2 incidents in 6 days is 67.6% likely

@LukasDay if you disagree I'd be fine with a larger bet at 80% if you want

@Bayesian - nah, I think you take me to be far more clever than I am. I was simply doing a poor job of news trading. I should have done the math. And having done the math, I agree with your probability.

[more than or equal to 9] or [more than 9]?

@Calvin6b82 Title says more than

Don't panic, it's the middle of February and there are only 5 days with incidents 🙂

The source now lists 9 incidents which is not >9.

However it is days not incidents isn't it?

So want to note the following:
Jan 16, 2024

Elevated error rate on moderations API

Resolved - This incident has been resolved.
Jan 16, 05:56 PST

Update - We are continuing to investigate the issue.
Jan 16, 04:52 PST

Update - We are seeing increased latency on a portion of requests to the moderation API. We have put in mitigations, and are continuing to investigate.
Jan 16, 02:26 PST

Update - We are continuing to investigate this issue.
Jan 16, 00:03 PST

Update - We are continuing to investigate this issue.
Jan 15, 23:03 PST

Investigating - We are currently investigating this issue.
Jan 15, 22:07 PST

The relevant page summarises this as
Elevated error rate on moderations API

This incident has been resolved.

Jan 15, 22:07 - Jan 16, 05:56 PST

So it seems to me that that incident was present on 2 days even if it was only 8 hours in total.

So 9 incidents on 10 days is on >9 days and question resolves yes?
@sylv

If you use ET perhaps not for that one but

Service degradation in ChatGPT

This incident has been resolved.

Jan 10, 20:41 - Jan 11, 00:19 PST

So if using ET that one is on 2 days. Closure time for question suggests ET

@ChristopherRandles this question is about February, not January. in general these questions use PST, the time on the status page