Will Trump call Kamala a communist during the debate?
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resolved Sep 12
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YES

Has to happen during the debate, associated words like "commie" or "Comrade Harris" or something count as well. To resolve YES, he must be referring to Kamala herself, not a policy or associated person.

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After mulling it over, going to resolve this YES. The Marxist insult did satisfy the spirit of the market I wanted to make, and the moderator made a good point that "comrade harris" and "marxist" are a similar distance away from "communist". If there are any NO traders that are unhappy/believe I made the wrong choice, hit me up and I'm happy to refund you

@such Bullshit. Especially since you quoted words didn’t include Marxist.

@such I'm unhappy to lose mana, but I don't think this was a dishonest resolution given the description (could've gone either way). Would recommend however, that in the future, a clause like "or related words" be included in the question title so people who are betting from the front page don't assume its just "communist".

@MattP I agree but because her father is a Marxist professor and everyone knows it, and he taught her well, I was specifically voting NO because I assumed he would call her a Marxist.

@KevinBlaw yeah, there is room for more clarity in the future. I think given the question title and description as-written, there would've been bettors justifiably frustrated with either resolution. I also bet assuming "communist" or some direct variant thereof, but there was plenty of room for people to reasonably assume a broader interpretation.

This really just underlines the need for extremely clear and unambiguous question descriptions, and unfortunately a bit of a caveat emptor element still - asking the question maker for clarification and not betting until clarification is given.

@MattP I hate when you have to lobby for your position from a market creator. I should just not bet when the market creator is basic.

@KevinBlaw sent a refund!

@MattP sent one to you as well

@such i was on the no side, but i think yes is perfectly reasonable here!

@polymathematic I think the problem with the market was that it seemed to me the spirit of the market was whether he would alliteratively call her a communist. I didn't perceive it as a market of whether we would parse hairs on whether being a radical left wing californian would count.

@such oh that wasn't necessary! No worries.

@KevinBlaw yeah, i think i said on another comment, i was definitely thinking of variations on the word "communist" as in sounds like communist. but if i'm being perfectly honestly, i would've bet against it even if it said "communist/socialist/marxist". a line that plays great at a rally works pretty different when you're on stage together at a debate, or so i thought. i guess i shouldn't have overestimated trump!

I have a no position. I think it should resolve NO. Was definitely thinking of variations on "communist" only (commie kamala, etc.).

right now, I'm leaning toward resolving NO for a few reasons...1. Marxism has a slight distinction from communism and thus it's not exactly the same insult, but mainly 2. in the description the "associated words" I put forth as examples both had communism specifically as the root word and stretching that definition to include "marxist/marxism" feels a bit unfair to traders like @MattP. However, the spirit of the market was to identify if he would mention her being aligned with communism and that certainly happened, so I see the argument for YES as well. or just N/A. thoughts @mods?

@such In the mind of Trump, who is doing the insulting, being a marxist or a communist is a difference without a distinction. This should either be resolved Yes or worst case, N/A though I would still have a real problem with and N/A resolution as well.

@such I bet NO, but I can see how calling her a Marxist is in spirit the same as calling her a communist. Only a small portion of the debate audience would understand the nuance between the two words.

@such I think NO isn't an unreasonable resolution, the market is ambiguous. I think, after thinking for a few minutes, I'd resolve it YES though, 'marxist' and 'comrade harris' seem similar distances from 'communist'.

Marxist should absolutely resolve as yes. He explicitly called her a Marxist and that is definitely a 'related word'.

Hmmm... Depends how technical you want to get on if a communist is the same thing as a Marxist. I don't know that I would've bet NO if I'd thought Marxist was included in the YES criteria though - I was banking on him not saying "communist" personally.

Based on your description I don't think resolving YES would be incorrect - I just wish the "or related words" had been in the question title and not just in the description.

I have a no position.

I think Marxist should resolve as a yes.

Called her a Marxist. I'd say YES.

I've listened to like the last fifteen trump speeches and I'd be pretty stunned if this was a no

w

"That's why I call her... COMrade Harris"

Would referencing her father as a Marxist count?

@LiamZ No, would need to be her specifically

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