Resolution criteria

• Scope: This market resolves to YES if a major federal artificial intelligence (AI) regulation bill is passed by the United States Congress and signed into law by the President (or otherwise becomes law, such as via veto override) on or before September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Definition of "Major Federal AI Regulation Bill": To qualify, the legislation must be a federal law that establishes a binding national regulatory, auditing, licensing, or safety framework governing the development, training, or deployment of general-purpose AI, foundation models, or frontier AI systems.

  • What qualifies: Bills that establish mandatory third-party audits, risk-management frameworks, register/reporting requirements, or explicit civil/criminal liability for frontier AI developers (e.g., the federal FRONTIER Act / Great American AI Act or similar comprehensive bipartisan bills if successfully enacted into law).

  • What does NOT qualify: State-level laws (e.g., Illinois' SB 315), federal bills addressing narrow AI issues (e.g., the TAKE IT DOWN Act or other bills targeting only AI-generated deepfakes/CSAM), legislation restricted solely to federal agency procurement or voluntary internal guidelines, or broad annual appropriations and spending bills that happen to contain minor AI funding riders.

• Source of Truth: Legislative status will be verified using the official U.S. Congress tracking database at Congress.gov or official White House press releases.

Background

While individual states have moved to pass binding safety laws—such as Illinois enacting SB 315 in July 2026 to require third-party audits on powerful AI models—the U.S. federal government has relied largely on executive actions. Executive Order 14365, signed in December 2025, directed federal agencies to challenge state-level AI rules to prevent a fragmented regulatory landscape.

In mid-2026, bipartisan congressional efforts accelerated to establish a unified federal baseline. Proposals like the FRONTIER Act (introduced in late July 2026 as part of the Great American AI Act framework) seek to implement federal oversight, mandatory catastrophic risk reporting, and independent audits for frontier AI systems. This market tracks whether any such comprehensive federal framework will successfully pass both chambers of Congress and be signed into law before October 2026.