Resolves YES if the deadline for Bytedance to divest from the US entity TikTok is removed or extended past January 19th 2025, 23:59 ET.
If Trump arranges for TikTok’s deadline to be extended, and the extension technically begins after he takes power on the 19th, this market will still resolve Yes as long as TikTok never becomes unavailable to download for the majority of US residents. This applies even if the deadline technically runs out before the extension takes effect.
Otherwise, this market will resolve No as soon as TikTok the deadline is passed and there are no plans for an extension. If Trump has announced plans for an extension, but TikTok has become unavailable to download for any amount of time for the majority of US residents as the deadline has passed, then this market will resolve No.
1,000
3.00@Gameknight Yes, this market resolves based on the law being delayed and not the enforcement of it.
As stated in the criteria, the only exception to this is if Trump has made and announced clear plans for an extension that begin once he is in power effectively delaying the deadline to divest by making the current law due to take effect redundant.
@lxgr What are his "clear plans" besides a post on Truth Social and to NBC News saying "most likely" but gave NO details.
Apple, Google remove TikTok from stores as app halts service in US
Published Sat, Jan 18 2025 11:00 PM EST
Updated 3 Min Ago
The Apple App Store and the Google Play store’s removal of TikTok means people in the U.S. can no longer download the popular short-form video app on their devices. TikTok also shut down the service.
@strutheo Just a last check, will the market still resolve NO if the app is downloadable but cannot be used? I believe that is the spirit of the question, but I want to check again.
At this time I dont think any additional clarifications will be helpful from beyond what has already been said.
Trade with caution, or not at all. Manifold will make sure to resolve according to the criteria already laid out, but it's possible we enter a strange edge case where people will disagree how to interpret the criteria.
@SirSalty I don't really agree?
Some important questions haven't been addressed, like whether Trump's current plans count or not and what happens if the app is downloadable but doesn't work.
The mismatch between the deadline of the bill and the deadline of the market hasn't been addressed either
@bagelfan Trump hasn't announced any official plans afaik so I don't know how to answer that question.
The closing date being longer (changed by Strutheo earlier) is fine in case we enter a edge-case world and people want to trade at their own risk, but isn't particularly relevant to the criteria laid out.
@SirSalty Sorry, I should have been more clear. Basically, I want to know if Trump's statements like he will "most likely" extend the deadline counts as a plan for an extension. And whether we are using the deadline in the bill, which is midnight today, or the deadline in the description, which is tomorrow
Trump 'most likely' to give TikTok a 90-day extension before ban takes effect, NBC News reports
Trump told NBC News he expects to "most likely" give TikTok a 90-day reprieve from a potential ban once he's taken office on Monday.
https://x.com/TikTokPolicy/status/1880424906820608180?t=naD-F_ob2i6IHJuzJdBqjg&s=19 WE JUMP SHIP BOYS GET YOUR LIFE RAFTS SELL YES