![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2Fstrutheo%2Frexty1mm36.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of September?
Basic
16
Ṁ1.1kSep 2
82%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves based on the 538 polling average at the beginning of Sept. This market resolves one week into Sept to allow time for the average to have been updated.
If the 538 average as of Sept 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on Sept 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.
As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 1 point:
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FjTIymzuiG1.png?alt=media&token=c84dc033-d23b-4705-bbca-5f732c87854e)
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
I think resolving yes if biden drops out is the most sensible thing to do in most scenarios, though depends how 538 shows it of course.
Related questions
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)
99% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of August?
78% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in Nevada polling at the beginning of July? (538)
99% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in Michigan polling at the beginning of July? (538)
99% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in Pennsylvania polling at the beginning of July? (538)
99% chance
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of July 9th?
1% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in Georgia polling at the beginning of July? [538 average +6%]
99% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in Arizona polling at the beginning of July? (538)
99% chance
Will Trump beat Biden in Wisconsin polling at the beginning of July? (538)
99% chance
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of August 10th?
11% chance