Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of September?
18
1kṀ4975
resolved Jul 25
Resolved
N/A

This market resolves based on the 538 polling average at the beginning of Sept. This market resolves one week into Sept to allow time for the average to have been updated.

If the 538 average as of Sept 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on Sept 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.

As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 1 point:

Politics
US Politics
Trump
2024 US Presidential Election
Joe Biden
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Can mods na pls ty @mods

bought Ṁ2,000 YES

@strutheo the biden dropout affects quite a few of your markets, might want to do some resolving or clarifying :)

What do we do if Biden drops out? Resolve yes?

@Joshua what are you doing for yours? can mods na in this case ?

I think resolving yes if biden drops out is the most sensible thing to do in most scenarios, though depends how 538 shows it of course.

Ah yes, betting on the axis labels on a chart on fivethirtyeight.com

reposted

upgraded to basic

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