ggwp to all!

@strutheo next one : https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-bitcoin-reach-6543210-before-a

Resolves YES

ping @strutheo

54321.00 or higher?

Or do we need to find a trade which closed at 54321.00 exactly?

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer 54321.00 or higher!

currently around 52222!

@strutheo not anymore

@esusatyo explain yourself

@RanaG 57% is way too high for this occurrence to happen.

@esusatyo fair. I'm just assuming a log normal distribution, so currently at 4x% seems calibrated

Although given the risk premium, it should be slightly above 50%

Block reward is halving in April.

2 weeks for a 4.7% move for a very volatile asset. The probability should be much higher than 35%

@RanaG when reaching these heights there's more volatility downwards than upwards

@RatUziCat That is a statement with many counter-evidence for a high liquidity market like Bitcoin

@RatUziCat What you are basically saying that current Bitcoin price is unjustifiably high given today's information set. So the price today is inefficiently high.

@RatUziCat Efficient market hypothesis seems to be prevailing here

@RanaG arbitrage 

https://manifold.markets/predyx_markets/will-bitcoin-hit-55k-in-february-20

https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-bitcoin-price-surpass-55000-be

@RatUziCat calibrated :D

@RanaG all converging to the magical "I don't know" threshold xD

.