Will a Youtuber with at least 1 million subscribers run for public office and win their election before Jan 1st 2027?
19
742
2027
58%
chance

Has to be a Youtuber, as in someone who makes their living off of content creation and uploading their content to Youtube.

Please post evidence, especially if you find one outside of English speaking areas. If there is a debatable submission, I'm going to have to make a judgement call, please forgive me. I'll be basing it off of the criteria below:

Definition of a Youtuber - has to hit the majority of the following:

  • Has a monetized Youtube channel, makes some portion of their living from it

  • Youtuber appears in their WIkipedia page

  • At least 2 years creating content on the platform

  • Uploads videos at least once a quarter, or if less frequently, reaches ~1M per video

  • Not an existing politician or public individual who uses Youtube to advertise themselves

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reposted

wonder why its trending upward, anyone in mind?

@strutheo ok nevermind

Time for another W for the NDL (https://www.youtube.com/@Niko/)

@firstuserhere he certainly has a head start

Trump’s Yt channel has 2m subs and Biden has nearly 800k and growing. This is very likely to happen.

predicts NO

@Elliot_dev

for the purposes of this question I am using the definition of a Youtuber as someone who does Youtube and content creation as their career/job

predicts YES

@strutheo oh...

So not someone with over a million subscribers on Youtube?

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer correct, not just an account with 1M. Specifically a YOUTUBER with over 1M. It must be a core part of their profession, not a platform to advertise from (as in an existing politician's case)

predicts YES

Define YOUTUBER?

Clearly it isn't, in this case, 'Someone who posts content to Youtube'...

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer as stated in the other comments - someone who makes their living off of posting their content on youtube is the definition we're using

predicts YES

@strutheo what portion of 'their living' must be made from Youtube payouts?

Do we need to have access to their tax returns? Or will you just guess?

Does this have to continue through their election campaign?

Define 'before January 1st 2027'.

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer 51% or more. good faith guess. they have to upload videos to their main channel during their election campaign, but it can be at a decreased rate (the limit will be up to 50% less than their usual upload schedule). has to win the election before Jan 1st 2027 00:00 AM EST time but does not have to take office before then.

@strutheo maybe it would be good to let me know who you are thinking of so we can clear it ahead of time, and pin down any other rules we'll need (if you have someone in mind)

I doubt anyone meets that definition of a 'Youtuber'...

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer ah ok I saw you voted yes so I assumed so

@strutheo It's cool, I've sold.

While the correct answer is now 'NO' because nobody makes 51% of their income from Youtube payouts (sponsors/merch/appearances/Twitch far outweigh it for anyone with 1M+ subs), I suspect this is a market on 'Will someone that I think of as a Youtuber, based on criteria I will make up on a case by case basis, win an election' which is entirely un-knowable.

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer wyt should i delete it?

@strutheo That seems excessive.

*I* prefer to avoid subjective 'Do I think xyz' markets, other people might not.

I'd suggest just going with 'I decide who a Youtuber is' because 51% of income from payouts will exclude an awful lot of people you don't intend to.

I doubt even Mr Beast or KSI would qualify for example...

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer i would say Mr Beast and KSI obviously count.

happy to use a more precise criteria if you have something to contribute. any suggestions?

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer


how about these in conjunction with any others you propose?
- monetized YT channel
- regular YT upload schedule
- at least two full years creating content on the platform

@strutheo That would easily include Trump.

Probably the best I could do would be 'Must include Youtuber (or synonym) in their Wikipedia bio'.

You probably want to decide if Youtuber excludes people who are also (more) famous on Twitch/TikTok/Whatever the kids use.

I also don't think there is anything wrong with 'in my opinion' or 'in popular opinion' either, just wasn't the question I was answering 'YES'.

@PaulBenjaminPhotographer i was still assuming my limitation against public figures listed in the description sorry for the confusion

the wikipedia criteria is also a good idea, i like that one

I'd also suggest making it a criteria that someone posts winners unless you're across Japanese (local) politics, because that is the most likely source of a win (it's already happened a couple of times now, Higashitani Yoshikazu/@GaaSyy being the most recent that I know of).

predicts NO

@strutheo Personally I still suggest "They are a youtuber if I decide they are, Gigachad." And then if people want to know if a specific example counts they can ask in the comments. Someone asked about Trump and you said no, ez pz

all helpful thanks, will keep refining the description

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