🪄Which person's Hogwarts House will be the most difficult for Manifold to predict?
13
273
Ṁ1.6KṀ1.1K
Aug 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
41%
8%
Sam Altman
7%
Taylor Swift
6%
Donald Trump
5%
Manifold itself
4%
Gordon Freeman
4%
Tony Soprano
4%
Joe Biden
4%
Medic (TF2)
3%
Yossarian (Catch 22)
3%
10th Doctor (Doctor Who)
2%
Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres (Harry Potter & The Methods of Rationality)
1.8%
Chat GPT
1.6%
Rorschach
1.4%
Jesus Christ
1.2%
Chris / strutheo
1%
Walter White
1%
Columbo
1%
Elon Musk
At the end of the year we will run a statistical comparison to see which prediction market was the most 'off' from the final poll result. If any person's prediction market is incorrect, only those individuals will be considered.
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