🪄Which person's Hogwarts House will be the most difficult for Manifold to predict?

Basic

Ṁ9278

resolved Jul 20

100%72%

Walter White

1.5%

Columbo

1.5%

Elon Musk

Manifold itself

1.6%

Jesus Christ

1.5%

Chris / strutheo

Rorschach

0.9%

Chat GPT

1.1%

Yossarian (Catch 22)

Tony Soprano

10th Doctor (Doctor Who)

0.6%

Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres (Harry Potter & The Methods of Rationality)

Medic (TF2)

Gordon Freeman

0.7%

Joe Biden

0.7%

Taylor Swift

0.7%

Donald Trump

0.8%

Sam Altman

0.9%Other

At the end of the year we will run a statistical comparison to see which prediction market was the most 'off' from the final poll result. If any person's prediction market is incorrect, only those individuals will be considered.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Culture

#Fun

#Meta-markets

#Entertainment and Pop Culture

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aella (unlisted) was predicted G but resolved R , the runner up

bought Ṁ100 NO

sam altman resolves slytherin, no surprise

walter white resolved against prediction! predicted ravenclaw, ended up slytherin
/strutheo/which-hogwarts-house-will-manifold-9161e0f3c124
/strutheo/which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-wa

bought Ṁ10 YES

The omake had several equally plausible versions of his sorting.

What are you going to use for the comparison? Maybe sum of squared distances?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yea that sounds good unless someone had a better one

reposted

starting to do the polls

reposted

final boss of hogwarts markets approaching

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