🪄Which person's Hogwarts House will be the most difficult for Manifold to predict?
18
1.1kṀ9278resolved Jul 20
100%72%
Walter White
1.5%
Columbo
1.5%
Elon Musk
3%
Manifold itself
1.6%
Jesus Christ
1.5%
Chris / strutheo
2%
Rorschach
0.9%
Chat GPT
1.1%
Yossarian (Catch 22)
3%
Tony Soprano
4%
10th Doctor (Doctor Who)
0.6%
Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres (Harry Potter & The Methods of Rationality)
2%
Medic (TF2)
2%
Gordon Freeman
0.7%
Joe Biden
0.7%
Taylor Swift
0.7%
Donald Trump
0.8%
Sam Altman
0.9%Other
At the end of the year we will run a statistical comparison to see which prediction market was the most 'off' from the final poll result. If any person's prediction market is incorrect, only those individuals will be considered.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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