🪄Which person's Hogwarts House will be the most difficult for Manifold to predict?
13
277
1.1k
Aug 1
41%
Other
8%
Sam Altman
7%
Taylor Swift
6%
Donald Trump
5%
Manifold itself
4%
Gordon Freeman
4%
Tony Soprano
4%
Joe Biden
4%
Medic (TF2)
3%
Yossarian (Catch 22)
3%
10th Doctor (Doctor Who)
2%
Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres (Harry Potter & The Methods of Rationality)
1.8%
Chat GPT
1.6%
Rorschach
1.4%
Jesus Christ
1.2%
Chris / strutheo
1%
Walter White
1%
Columbo
1%
Elon Musk

At the end of the year we will run a statistical comparison to see which prediction market was the most 'off' from the final poll result. If any person's prediction market is incorrect, only those individuals will be considered.

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Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres (Harry Potter & The Methods of Rationality)
bought Ṁ10 Harry James Potter-E... YES

The omake had several equally plausible versions of his sorting.

What are you going to use for the comparison? Maybe sum of squared distances?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yea that sounds good unless someone had a better one

reposted

starting to do the polls

reposted

final boss of hogwarts markets approaching

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