🪄Which person's Hogwarts House will be the most difficult for Manifold to predict?
CultureEntertainment and Pop CultureFunTelevision & FilmMeta-marketsPsychologyBooksHarry PotterHogwarts Sorting
Mini
18
Ṁ9.3k
resolved Jul 20
100%72%
Walter White
1.5%
Columbo
1.5%
Elon Musk
3%
Manifold itself
1.6%
Jesus Christ
1.5%
Chris / strutheo
2%
Rorschach
0.9%
Chat GPT
1.1%
Yossarian (Catch 22)
3%
Tony Soprano
4%
10th Doctor (Doctor Who)
0.6%
Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres (Harry Potter & The Methods of Rationality)
2%
Medic (TF2)
2%
Gordon Freeman
0.7%
Joe Biden
0.7%
Taylor Swift
0.7%
Donald Trump
0.8%
Sam Altman
0.9%Other

At the end of the year we will run a statistical comparison to see which prediction market was the most 'off' from the final poll result. If any person's prediction market is incorrect, only those individuals will be considered.

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reposted

aella (unlisted) was predicted G but resolved R , the runner up

bought Ṁ100 Sam Altman NO

sam altman resolves slytherin, no surprise

walter white resolved against prediction! predicted ravenclaw, ended up slytherin
/strutheo/which-hogwarts-house-will-manifold-9161e0f3c124
/strutheo/which-hogwarts-house-do-you-sort-wa

Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres (Harry Potter & The Methods of Rationality)
bought Ṁ10 Harry James Potter-E... YES

The omake had several equally plausible versions of his sorting.

What are you going to use for the comparison? Maybe sum of squared distances?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yea that sounds good unless someone had a better one

reposted

starting to do the polls

reposted

final boss of hogwarts markets approaching

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