README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards: 1st event: 1% (happens soonest) 2nd event: 2% (happens next) ... 100th event: 100% (happens latest) Any games not released before Jan 1st 2040 will resolve 100% YES. Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For "Gears of War 6", the release of Gears of War: E-Day (the next mainline installment) will be treated as that answer's release, even though the title differs. Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Open developer preview/alpha builds that are not officially labeled as beta releases or full releases may not count as a game's release date. The determination depends on whether it is: A live service game Being sold yet How complete it is Games in early access programs may count depending on these factors. Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Dynasty Warriors Origins will count as Dynasty Warriors 10 for resolution purposes. Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fable (2027) will count as Fable 4 for resolution purposes. Update 2026-10-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Hytale, the Early Access release on January 13, 2026 is considered early access rather than a full release, and therefore will not count as its release date for this market.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Elder Scrolls 6, followed by ARMA 4 and Haunted Chocolatier are most likely. See the market for live updates (98 traders, as of Oct 8, 2026).

🎮Which of these 100 video games will release LAST (or after 2040) in chronological order? (23 DONE)

MANIFOLD

🎮Which of these 100 video games will release LAST (or after 2040) in chronological order? (23 DONE)

Ṁ11kṀ22k

2040

23%

Grand Theft Auto 6

24%

deadlock / neon Prime (valve game)

25%

Tropico 7

26%

Virtua Fighter 6

27%

Persona 6

29%

Witcher 4 Polaris

29%

Hytale

30%

Haunted Chocolatier

32%

ARMA 4

32%

Elder Scrolls 6

32%

Command and Conquer 5

34%

Splatoon 4

35%

King of Fighters 16

36%

Control 2

37%

Guilty Gear (after Strive)

37%

Fable 4

38%

Gran Turismo 8

40%

Need for Speed (26th main game)

40%

Mortal Kombat after 'MK1' (MK12)

40%

Super Smash Bros (after Ultimate)

README: Each answer will resolve to a percent as they happen, starting with 1% for the first event and working upwards:

1st event: 1% (happens soonest)
2nd event: 2% (happens next)
...
100th event: 100% (happens latest)

Any games not released before Jan 1st 2040 will resolve 100% YES.

Update 2025-09-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For "Gears of War 6", the release of Gears of War: E-Day (the next mainline installment) will be treated as that answer's release, even though the title differs.

Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Open developer preview/alpha builds that are not officially labeled as beta releases or full releases may not count as a game's release date. The determination depends on whether it is:
- A live service game
- Being sold yet
- How complete it is

Games in early access programs may count depending on these factors.

Update 2025-11-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Dynasty Warriors Origins will count as Dynasty Warriors 10 for resolution purposes.

Update 2026-06-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Fable (2027) will count as Fable 4 for resolution purposes.

Update 2026-10-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For Hytale, the Early Access release on January 13, 2026 is considered early access rather than a full release, and therefore will not count as its release date for this market.

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I think Marathon should resolve? It came out in 2026.

@CommanderZander @mods can you resolve marathon as 21 and bump the other resolved answers up by 1? thanks

S&box (Sandbox) = 22
Next Gears of War (E Day) = 23

bought Ṁ20 NO

@strutheo Hytale? early access 13 Jan 2026
"surpassed one million players shortly after launch"
Hytale - Wikipedia
That doesn't seem very limited

Gears of War is now available - released 6th Oct 2026

@ChristopherRandles seems like hytale is still considered early access not a full release

No reason Fable 2027 shouldn't count as Fable 4, right?

@asmith ill count it

@strutheo Resolve s&box?

bought Ṁ1 NO

Resident Evil 9 › Initial release date 27 February 2026
@strutheo Resolve?

filled a Ṁ50 NO at 30% order

@strutheo it’s back! you basically said we’ll figure it out for early access games, so… good luck 😅

bought Ṁ26 NO

Does Dynasty Warriors Origins count as Dynasty Warriors 10? (It seems like it should count)

@asmith yes

@strutheo Released 17 Jan 2025?

Dynasty Warriors: Origins was released on January 17, 2025, for PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, and PC. A Nintendo Switch 2 version is scheduled for release on January 22, 2026.

Does that mean it is N/A'd for being well out of order in being noticed? or is the Jan 2-26 date used?

sold Ṁ2 YES

@strutheo
Europa Universalis 5 can resolve as 19% for 4 Nov 2025 release I believe
(title says 17 done but 18% is resolved (so change title to 19 done))

@strutheo
Little Nightmares 3 - Oct 10 2025
Vampire the Masquerade Bloodlines 2 - Oct 21 2025

Outer Worlds 2 - Oct 29 2025

Monaco 2 - 10 April 2025 ?

sold Ṁ4 YES

@ChristopherRandles EUV drops tomorrow as well

@ChristopherRandles @strutheo why did monaco 2 get N/Ad but monaco 3 left alone?

@Stralor Monaco 2 was noticed out of order after Silksong was resolved so it was N/A'd and replaced with Monaco 3.

bought Ṁ10 NO

https://2xko.riotgames.com/en-gb/news/announcements/2xko-early-access-starts-october-7/
Does early access count?

sold Ṁ5 NO

Fatal Fury: City of the Wolves release date 24 April 2025
https://store.steampowered.com/app/2492040/FATAL_FURY_City_of_the_Wolves/

@strutheo #14 can resolve

Silent Hill f released today 25 September 2025

Gears of War 6
the next mainline instalment in the franchise is Gears of War: E-Day, a prequel to the original game

Does the "next mainline instalment" count?
or does it have to be precisely named e.g. "Gears of War 6"?
or perhaps if "Gears of War 6" is renamed that is sufficient (i.e. has to have been called "Gears of War 6" at some point in its development)?
or something else defines whether something qualifies?