https://x.com/mickwest/status/1887618190144119055?s=46&t=g50MLUSHddSlcDK6s9fHIA

@mods can you unresolve all until i get more details for resolving

@strutheo Done.

There was a high proportion of misidentification of planes, planets, and other things erroneously called strange drones.

@TracyHarms im fine NAing the ' mistaken' option since there was also a lot of that, @mods can you handle? i am locked out

@Bayesian @strutheo I have major issues with taking the WH press sec as a source of truth. Can we find something more non-partisan?

@WilliamGunn thats fair too i havent found much else

@strutheo Do whatever you think is right, I just won't take positions on your stuff if the epistemic standards are that low.

@WilliamGunn asked mods to unresolve it for now

What's the resolution of "The drone sightings are mistaken (e.g. they’re planes)" if only like a couple of the sightings are something not mundane? Because it seems overwhelmingly obvious that the majority of sightings are mistaken (just passenger jets and mundane stuff), the question is if there's something behind at least a couple of the sightings. If it turns out the overwhelming majority of sightings are mistaken, but just one sighting was not, how will this resolve?

I don't actually think it's US military, but when I arbitraged to https://manifold.markets/10thOfficial/what-will-be-true-about-the-mystery this market sw

ung a whole lot further than that one.

What will be true about the mystery drones flying over New Jersey (NJ)?

In case there is no information for a long period of time, will close in the Summer of 2025. Answers with no new information will be N/A’ed in order to not tie up mana indefinitely. Update 2024-16-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution will be based on official sources Multiple different explanations/sources can be considered true simultaneously Resolution will wait for information to be properly verified and sorted through

If the drones are just hobbyists, then why on earth is the USG being so deceptive?

Big if true!

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4000004/test/

@Predictor the link doesn’t work

Suggestion: just some hobbyists playing around

no like green men?

What will you resolve to if we don't conclusively know within a month?