Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Who or what is behind the drones around central New Jersey?
80
Ṁ300Ṁ4.5k
resolved May 11
Resolved
YES
The drone sightings are mistaken (e.g. they’re planes)
Resolved
N/A
Hobbiest
Resolved
N/A
Inconclusive/unexplained
Resolved
NO
Private Defense Company / Team
Resolved
NO
Iran
Resolved
NO
USA Intelligence Agency
Resolved
NO
USA Military
Resolved
NO
Russia
Resolved
NO
China
Resolved
NO
Trump organization
Resolved
NO
NJ State Gov
Resolved
NO
Santa Claus
Resolved
NO
Terrorism

resolves YES to all that are true at the end of the investigation

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ174
2Ṁ28
3Ṁ23
4Ṁ21
5Ṁ21
Sort by:

Joint DHS/FBI Statement on Reports of Drones in New Jersey | Homeland Security https://share.google/syKRynx5Hw5iydNlu

What was this resolved according to?

@mods can you unresolve all until i get more details for resolving

@strutheo Done.

@strutheo any plans for this market?

There was a high proportion of misidentification of planes, planets, and other things erroneously called strange drones.

@TracyHarms im fine NAing the ' mistaken' option since there was also a lot of that, @mods can you handle? i am locked out

bought Ṁ25 YES

@Bayesian @strutheo I have major issues with taking the WH press sec as a source of truth. Can we find something more non-partisan?

@WilliamGunn thats fair too i havent found much else

@strutheo Do whatever you think is right, I just won't take positions on your stuff if the epistemic standards are that low.

@WilliamGunn asked mods to unresolve it for now

What's the resolution of "The drone sightings are mistaken (e.g. they’re planes)" if only like a couple of the sightings are something not mundane? Because it seems overwhelmingly obvious that the majority of sightings are mistaken (just passenger jets and mundane stuff), the question is if there's something behind at least a couple of the sightings. If it turns out the overwhelming majority of sightings are mistaken, but just one sighting was not, how will this resolve?

If the drones are just hobbyists, then why on earth is the USG being so deceptive?

bought Ṁ5 NO

Suggestion: just some hobbyists playing around

no like green men?

bought Ṁ30 NO

What will you resolve to if we don't conclusively know within a month?

reposted