(I WILL NOT BE BETTING IN THIS MARKET)

Edit: I will be closing the market as soon as I go to the gym 8 times

Will I go the gym enough times this month to justify purchasing a 1-month membership over daily passes?

--

Context:

1. I will be moving out of my city on January 20, 2023, and want to go the gym a couple of times until then

2. The monthly membership at my local gym + one-time initiation fee comes out to ~60 USD (or the equivalent in local currency), while daily passes cost ~8.50 USD.

3. I plan on going to the gym today and buying a monthly-membership (again, worth $60)

4. Hence, if by January 20th, I have gone to the gym 8 or more times, I will consider this purchase to have been justified.

Helpful information:

1. I had a gym membership between July and December, and was gyming between 3-5 a week.

   1. Mode = 3 times/wk throughout the whole period, and probably Mode = 4 times/wk for November and December specifically

2. I cancelled my membership in December because I thought I was moving out sooner

3. Even though I'm not betting in this market, I am treating this as a challenge, so I will put stats regarding similar challenges I've done in the past:

   1. I probably succeeded in around 1 in 5 comparable physical challenges I've tried in the past

   2. I've succeeded in a slightly higher amount of similar non-physical challenges I've tried in the past (1 in 4 or 1 in 3)

   3. I'm probably in the best mental headspace and am the most disciplined I've ever been in my life, so I am confident in succeeding in this challenge

   4. Weak evidence for the previous bullet point is that my current Anki streak is 219 days and my current Manifold streak is 55 days

4. I will keep a log below that I will update daily with whether or not I've gone to the gym that day

Resolves to YES if I have gone to the gym 8 or more times between market open (January 6th) and close (January 20th)

Work-out log:

January 6th: Cardio (20 minutes) + Chest + Biceps ✅

January 7th: No gym (Sunday) ❌

January 8th: Cardio (20 minutes) + Legs ✅

January 9th: Cardio + Core + Back ✅

January 10th: No gym (resting from previous days) ❌

January 11th: Chest + Biceps ✅

January 12th: No gym (did Cardio + Core from home) ❌

January 13th: Cardio (10 min) + Legs ✅

January 14th: No gym (resting) ❌

January 15th: No gym (couldn't go) ❌

January 16th: Cardio (20 min) + Back + Biceps + Shoulders ✅

January 17th: Cardio + Chest + Core ✅

January 18th: No gym ❌

January 19th: Legs ✅