Will Rep. Dean Phillips win at least one state in the 2024 Democratic primaries?

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

Pretty misleading for Yang to claim that he's "up to 21%" in New Hampshire when that number comes from a poll that was a massive outlier.


Dean Phillips is the strongest Democrat running against Joe Biden. Andrew Yang, Jason Calacanis, and others have been boosting his campaign, pointing out he's hit 21% in NH polling (although the same poll shows Biden's lead growing by 3%)

But Manifold Politics users know that he's unlikely to win any primary, let alone the presidency (< 2% chance)

@cockathiel do US territories count? DC, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, etc?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Most likely Democratic primary voters plan to vote for President Joe Biden whether he is on the ballot or not, with little appetite for alternative candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or Marianne Williamson.

University of New Hampshire (Sept 22nd)

The fundamentals say no to Phillips in NH, even with primary shenanigans leaving Biden off the ballot.

how did i not see this market until today :(

Can anyone explain why dean's even running? I don't get it.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@jacksonpolack Apparently the Guardian can (I have not actually read the article, I just looked up Dean Phillips)

bought Ṁ25 of YES

New Hampshire