In California, a company is using a massive amount of compute to create a paradigm-changing product with a release date years away. I'm talking, of course, about Frozen 3.

Frozen 3 has been delayed, but is currently scheduled for release on November 24, 2027.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if AGI is achieved before Frozen 3's US theatrical release.

This market resolves NO if Frozen 3 is released in US theaters before AGI is achieved.

Frozen 3 Criteria

- Must be the wide theatrical release date in the United States

- Festival premieres don't count (looking at you, "Tromsø Ice Crystal Animation Gala")

- A surprise midnight screening at Walt Disney's cryogenically preserved head also doesn't count

- If Disney announces Frozen 3 will be "released exclusively in the Metaverse" then we'll burn that bridge when we get to it

AGI Criteria

- A system must demonstrate human-level performance across essentially all cognitive tasks

- Must be verified by at least two of the following:

  - Published results that aren't just marketing hype

  - Public announcement by a major AI lab (OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, etc.)

  - Consensus among AI researchers (as evidenced by surveys or public statements)

  - Demonstrated ability to perform complex tasks like original scientific research and general problem-solving across domains

Additionally

- Sam Altman tweeting "👀" doesn't count

- Must be able to explain to a 5-year-old why Elsa has ice powers but Anna doesn't

Special Cases

- If Frozen 3 is cancelled or pivots to being entirely AI-generated market resolves N/A

- If neither is released by 2030, market resolves N/A

- Market creator reserves right to sing “Do You Want to Build a Snowman” while clarifying edge cases