Will a Democrat (John Fetterman) win Pennsylvania's 2022 U.S. Senate election (against Republican nominee Dr. Oz)?

124

Ṁ6.2K

Ṁ1.1K

resolved Nov 9

Resolved

YES

ALL

Pennsylvania is a key battleground state for control of the U.S. Senate. I'll resolve this market by relying on the call made by the Associated Press. If the AP does not call the election by January 4, 2023, I'll resolve it N/A.

Sep 30, 9:31am: ~~Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania's 2022 U.S. Senate election?~~ → Will a Democrat (John Fetterman) win Pennsylvania's 2022 U.S. Senate election (against Republican nominee Dr. Oz)?

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ1,145
2		Ṁ210
3		Ṁ173
4		Ṁ117
5		Ṁ104

13 Comments

58 Holders

676 Trades

Sort by:

predicted YES

bought Ṁ18 of YES

(per FiveThirtyEight forecast)

predicted YES

A Suffolk University/USA Today survey released yesterday shows John Fetterman (D) leading Dr. Oz (R) by 9 percentage points — 46% to 37%. Thirteen percent of respondents were undecided. https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/fetterman-oz-shapiro-mastriano-poll-pennsylvania-senate-governor-20220615.html

@steve The favorability gap is real... but, still, junk poll.

predicted YES

@EnopoletusHarding I have not seen the sample or crosstabs, so I can't comment on its methodology. That said, I think polling at this stage of any race has fairly narrow utility.

@steve Agree.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Why N/A if it stretches beyond Jan 4? Why not just wait to see who is sworn in?

predicted YES

@MattP My intent with that was to do exactly what you suggest -- wait to see who is sworn in. As I understand it, swearing-in day will be January 3, 2023, one day before my stated deadline for resolving the market as N/A. Do I have that wrong? If so, I'm happy to tweak the deadline.

predicted NO

@steve ah, so your "resolve N/A" is in the unlikely event the AP doesn't call anyone because no one has actually been sworn in.

predicted YES

@MattP Yea, that's what I was thinking. But keep in mind that the question as I wrote it is about who the AP says is the winner of *the election*, not who gets sworn in. So, for example, if the AP calls the election before Jan 4 in favor of a candidate who then dies before swearing-in, I'd still resolve this in favor of the candidate for whom the AP called the race. And if the AP does not call the election before Jan 4, I'd resolve this N/A, even if someone is sworn in to PA's open Senate seat on Jan 3 (I don't know how this could possibly happen, but just want to illustrate my point).