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MANIFOLD
Will META's weight in the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) index increase above 5% as a result of the July 2023 Special Rebalance?
2
Ṁ70Ṁ20
resolved Jul 21
Resolved
NO

The Nasdaq-100 is undergoing a Special Rebalance to adjust the weights of those issuers which had an initial weight of 4.5% or higher "based on the index securities and shares outstanding as of July 3, 2023" in order to prevent those securities from collectively constituting 48% or more of the index.

The Special Rebalance was announced at https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/the-nasdaq-100-index-special-rebalance-to-be-effective-july-24-2023-2023-07-07 and covered by (among other sources):

Matt Levine observes that the published Index Methodology defines the aggregate final weight of the issuers with initial weights above 4.5%, but does not define how the adjustments will be distributed within that group or among other issuers. As of July 3rd, Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL & GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), and Tesla (TSLA) were above the 4.5% weight threshold. Meta (META) was at 4.20%. Levine calculates that, if the adjustments were performed pro-rata, META would rise to 5.1% of the index. Will this occur?

The announcement indicates that "the index share announcements and pro-forma file release will take place July 14, 2023", and that the Special Rebalance will be "effective prior to the market open on Monday, July 24, 2023".

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