In order to clearly define the resolution criteria, I will use the following quantitative metric:

Harvard backs down: Harvard does not lose any federal funding after accepting Trump's demands

Compromise: Harvard and Trump come to an agreement and either loses some amount of federal funding between 0 and the current threatened amount (around $2 billion) or implements some of the demands but not all.

No compromise: Harvard loses the full $2 billion of federal funding and no agreement is reached by the end of April.

Trump backs down: Harvard does not lose any federal funding and isn't compelled to accept any of Trump's demands.

• Update 2025-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering how to resolve the market given the ongoing legal battle potentially extending past the original close date.

Traders are being asked to indicate their preference between two options:

• Extending the market's close date beyond May 14, 2025, possibly towards the start of oral arguments on July 21.

• Resolving the market as 'No Compromise' on the original close date (May 14, 2025) if no agreement between Harvard and the Administration has been reached by that time. This potential resolution path is offered irrespective of the ongoing legal proceedings or the final funding decision at that specific moment.

• Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve on its original closing date, May 14, 2025. The resolution will be determined as follows:

  • A check will be made if a deal has been reached by May 14, 2025, between Harvard and the Administration that specifically resolves their pending court case.

  • If such a deal has been reached, the market will be resolved based on the terms of that deal, by applying the original definitions for 'Harvard backs down', 'Compromise', or 'Trump backs down'.

  • If no such deal (i.e., no deal at all, or a deal that does not resolve the pending court case) has been reached by May 14, 2025, the market will resolve as 'No Compromise'.

    • This resolution to 'No Compromise' will occur even if Harvard has not lost the full $2 billion of federal funding by May 14, 2025 (a condition previously part of the 'No Compromise' definition).

    • This also means that any agreement reached by May 14, 2025, that does not result in the resolution of the pending court case would lead to a 'No Compromise' resolution.