In order to clearly define the resolution criteria, I will use the following quantitative metric:
Harvard backs down: Harvard does not lose any federal funding after accepting Trump's demands
Compromise: Harvard and Trump come to an agreement and either loses some amount of federal funding between 0 and the current threatened amount (around $2 billion) or implements some of the demands but not all.
No compromise: Harvard loses the full $2 billion of federal funding and no agreement is reached by the end of April.
Trump backs down: Harvard does not lose any federal funding and isn't compelled to accept any of Trump's demands.
Update 2025-05-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is considering how to resolve the market given the ongoing legal battle potentially extending past the original close date.
Traders are being asked to indicate their preference between two options:
Extending the market's close date beyond May 14, 2025, possibly towards the start of oral arguments on July 21.
Resolving the market as 'No Compromise' on the original close date (May 14, 2025) if no agreement between Harvard and the Administration has been reached by that time. This potential resolution path is offered irrespective of the ongoing legal proceedings or the final funding decision at that specific moment.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve on its original closing date, May 14, 2025. The resolution will be determined as follows:
A check will be made if a deal has been reached by May 14, 2025, between Harvard and the Administration that specifically resolves their pending court case.
If such a deal has been reached, the market will be resolved based on the terms of that deal, by applying the original definitions for 'Harvard backs down', 'Compromise', or 'Trump backs down'.
If no such deal (i.e., no deal at all, or a deal that does not resolve the pending court case) has been reached by May 14, 2025, the market will resolve as 'No Compromise'.
This resolution to 'No Compromise' will occur even if Harvard has not lost the full $2 billion of federal funding by May 14, 2025 (a condition previously part of the 'No Compromise' definition).
This also means that any agreement reached by May 14, 2025, that does not result in the resolution of the pending court case would lead to a 'No Compromise' resolution.
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@JussiVilleHeiskanen It's probably implementing some demands, but the $2 billion in federal funding is still being actively litigated over
@traders As of now it appears Harvard and the Administration are going into a protracted legal battle, with oral arguments beginning July 21. Would you all prefer I extend the market for the legal case, or resolve No Compromise on the original closing date of May 14 if no agreement is reached?
@spiderduckpig Changing the date by which a compromise has to occur would have been material information to me & I would prefer no change.
@WilliamGunn @traders Ok, then for clarification this market will resolve No Compromise on 5/14 unless a deal is reached that resolves their pending court case by then (a pretty unlikely event)
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/05/us/politics/trump-harvard-research-grants.html
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/04/us/allison-dale-burroughs-judge-harvard-trump
@jgyou I recognize it's difficult to design a resolution criteria that perfectly captures every possible action, in that case I'll resolve to Other or someone can add another option if it's clearly distinct from the options I have put