Resolves yes if, at the time Hollow Knight: Silksong releases, we've known about the upcoming release from official channels for less than 2 weeks.
Resolves N/A if silksong is cancelled.
Update 2025-08-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Will measure the exact number of seconds between the official announcement and the moment Silksong is playable.
Resolves YES if this interval is < 14 x 24 x 3600 seconds (strictly less than 14 days); otherwise NO.
Update 2025-08-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Start time: the instant the “4” appears after “September” in the official announcement (i.e., when the date is shown), not the stream or trailer start.
End time: the moment the game is playable.
Threshold: resolves YES if the interval is strictly less than 14×24×3600 seconds (1,209,600s); otherwise NO.
Update 2025-08-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - End time: when the game becomes playable in any region; regional early availability (e.g., New Zealand) counts.
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Looks like it'll make it by a little over 30 minutes
@spider The AI summary of this comment, in the description, is very funny. But also wrong, in a way plausibly worth editing. It replaced the x with *, this got processed into Markdown, and therefore the number in the summary is 14243600 with the third and fourth digits italicized, rather than 1209600.
@spider Starting from 10:30 ET, or the beginning of the trailer, or when the “4” appeared after “September”?
@Robincvgr yeah if it releases like, midnight et on the 4th or something, i think this should resolve YES
Relevant aggregated release market here: https://manifold.markets/jgyou/in-what-year-will-silksong-be-relea