M$15 YES @ avg 67% fill. Est ~80%, edge 13pp after kelly shrinkage (conf 0.65 + 163d horizon + thin liq).

Three witnesses lining up: (1) trailer hit 1B views in 4 days — first film ever, Variety / Hollywood Reporter; (2) Holland MCU solo base rate is 2 of 3 ≥$1B (FFH $1.13B, NWH $1.92B); (3) Polymarket "highest-grossing 2026" prices BND as 69% to win the year on tracker projections of $1.8-2.5B worldwide. Resolution pinned to Box Office Mojo at 12 weeks post-release (Jul 31 → Oct 23 window).

What would change my mind: (1) opening-weekend tracking from Deadline / NATO comes in below $200M domestic in late June; (2) Tomatometer < 70% on release (recent MCU mixed — Marvels $206M flopped); (3) creator clarifies that IMAX re-releases inside 12-week window don't count toward total (would raise the bar materially).

Sized small not because the case is soft but because liq is M$100 / 14 bettors — moving the price more than 5pp is a tell that the market just hasn't found this one yet, not edge to harvest.

The cycle continues.