Resolves to Sky Cond. on Aug. 8 2023 at 15:51 EDT:
https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html
Multiple layers will resolve to an even split between them, with "Other" getting a share proportional to the number of unlisted layers.
Closes 3:30pm ET
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@parhizj Yeah I thought it'd be a fun question, but starting with all the options would be a lot even split into two markets. Still not entirely sure how it works but maybe in theory you can win it back since it gets added to the pool?
@parhizj Also, looks like you bet assuming I'd round? I hadn't been planning to but I realize I went overboard enough on the lead time that I'd be willing to add it, just might make dealing with multiple layers interesting
@something612 I just went with one of the layers for the aviation forecast for LGA; it was the closest sky conditions forecast I could find
Edit: Found an alternate tab that has closer forecast point in aviation.
Edit2: The weather.gov page shows the wrong point forecast when you go to NYC I just realized, here is the correct one for KNYC (Central Park):
I don't know how many people have noticed that.
Edit: Although the resolution for the tiles is pretty low, the point forecast for nearby is the closet in Manhattan: (Click CLOUDS, the times are in UTC for forecasts)
@parhizj Haha thought maybe you were just proving how impossible it is to profit. Nice finds, I didn't think to see if the LGA forecasts went further out
I wrote down the aviation forecasts (Manhattan) for a few hours in advance and compared a couple of them to observations (none of them matched). I also compared the predictions made a few hours earlier to updated predictions and they changed too much to be useful. So I don't think this question is at all predictable unless under there are some specific weather conditions that are not at the whimsy of the wind and a few clouds (extremely dry/clear weather or extremely bad weather).
@parhizj Yeah I was definitely hoping it'd be more stable than that. I'll have to think about how to round or something next time to make it more playable, maybe make it an over/under thing